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date: 16 February 2020

(p. 685) Subject Index

(p. 685) Subject Index

Figures and tables are indicated by “f” and “t” following page numbers.

Aarhus Convention (1998 Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation In Decision-Making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters), 622
Academic fields relevant to climate risk management, 14, 14f
Acid Rain Program, 376
Adaptation, 4
adaptive learning, 125, 126
adaptive R&D, 326
agriculture, rate of adapting of, 596
cost estimates, 549
Country Assistance Strategies incorporating, 151
dynamics of multiagent economic-environmental system, 120–122
food crops related to temperatures, 593
increasing height of coastal defenses, 9
Integrated Assessment Models and, 115–120. See also Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs)
model calibration, 1t 31, 130–131
model-predictive climate policies in multicountry setting, 114–138
model predictive rational behavior, 122–125, 136n8
scenarios description, 131–132
simulation results, 129–135, 132–134f
updating damage function, 127–129
updating of discount rate, 129
Aerosols, 9. See also Ozone depletion
Africa. See also specific countries and regions
AIDS treatment patents in, 339
precipitation changes tied to global warming, 594
stoves technology, 325
Agenda 21 (Earth Summit 1992), 605, 607, 609
Agriculture, 588–600. See also Developing countries
climate change’s expected positive effect on, 589
as climate-sensitive industry, 589
Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments, 590–591
importance of, 597n2
inaction’s cost, 588–589
reduced estimates of carbon fertilization, 590–591
temperature threshold model for crop yields, 591–593
transition of labor from agriculture to manufacturing and services, 446
weather extremes and, 576, 578–579, 593–595. See also Droughts
Alternative energy. See Hydropower; Nuclear power; Renewable energy
Altriusm, 650
Amazon rainforest dieback, 9, 10f, 261
Amphibian extinctions, 575
Arbitration and conflict resolution, 622–623
Asian financial crisis in 1997–1998, 144–145 (p. 686)
Atlantic meridional overturning circulation collapse, 9, 10f, 12
Australia
climatic instability, effects of, 647
emission trading system, 277
employment impact of carbon tax, 471
malaria, 580
precipitation changes tied to global warming, 594
renewable energy, 353
Automobile industry
diesel-powered cars, 354–355
electric cars, 355, 371
joint automobile ventures of China with U.S., emission control technologies of, 339
Bacteria, 650
Bali Conference and Bali Action Plan (2007), 610–611
Bargaining theory, 155, 156f
Bayesian games, 154
Biodiversity, 610, 625, 649, 657, 664, 667–668
Biofuels, 332, 352–353, 358–359, 368, 414
Blue Map scenario, 500, 510–511, 510f
Bölling–Allerod warming and formation of low-pressure areas, 572
BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 403
Brazil. See also BRICS
biofuels from, 332
climate-friendly innovation, 324
distribution of climate rent according to historical emissions, proposal from, 274
economic growth stimulus in future from, 146
forest products exporter, 223
fossil fuel energy from, 151
hydropower development, 537
patent data from, 332
R&D performance of, 323
BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), 324, 331, 508
Burden-sharing literature, 281–282
Bush administration’s opposition to Kyoto Protocol, 617
Business-as-usual policy, 5, 10f, 30
agriculture and, 588–589
in bilateral trade scenario, 224, 225–234
Copenhagen Agreement pledges and, 278
human nature and, 114
with low abatement, 96–107
model predictive rational behavior and, 125
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and, 262, 263f
in RICE model scenario, 118
California
crop yields related to climate change, 593, 594
emission trading system, 277, 286, 618
groundwater reserves, 595
Cambridge Econometric E3ME model, 455
Canada, withdrawal from Kyoto Protocol, 509, 613
Cancun Climate Summit (2010), 1, 612–613, 657
Carbon Capturing and Sequestration (CCS) techniques, 118, 669
Carbon credits, 662, 665
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction, 1, 84–85, 116, 171. See also Greenhouse gases (GHGs); specific agreements, conventions, and treaties
double-dividend hypothesis, 448–456
as global policy challenge, 321, 502, 648
noncooperative countries, incentives for. See Incentives for noncooperative countries
reduced estimates of carbon fertilization of crops, 590–591
uncertainty on safe cumulative emissions limit, 173
Carbon fee. See Carbon tax
Carbon Market, 649, 658–665, 666
Carbon-negative power plants, 666, 668
Green Power Fund for, 667
Carbon sink, 666, 667 (p. 687)
Carbon tax, 4, 640–641, 643. See also Emission reduction policies
cost reduction or zero or negative cost associated with, 449–450
double-sided vector autoregression (VAR) used to assess effectiveness of, 4
effectiveness of, 282–283
employment impact of, 446, 448, 454–455. See also Employment effects of climate policies
as fair solution, 5, 446
as gradualist approach to climate policy, 22
personal income taxes reduction coupled with, 453
renewable energies and, 4
revenue recycling and, 449, 453
uncertainty of benefits from, 449
welfare impact of, 297, 308, 453
Carter administration, 351
CBA (Cost–benefit analysis), 116, 266–267, 582
Chemical industry, 537
Chernobyl accident (1986), 399, 402, 606
Chicago Board of Trade’s sulfur dioxide (SO2) market, 661, 664
Chicken Game, 276
Chile
forest products exporter, 223
wind energy and turbine manufacturing capacity, 331
China. See also BRICS
abatement investment of, 218
Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) as national asset, 338
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, 337, 663
climate-friendly innovation, 324, 342, 660
CO2 emissions, 509, 556, 565, 643–644, 657
cooking stoves technology, 325
Copenhagen agreement, signatory to, 508
economic growth, 146, 321, 479
energy efficiency, 479
estimation results and analysis, 561–562, 562–563f
forecast of population dynamics, 530–531, 530f
hunger reduction, 520
hydropower development, 537
increased science and technology (S&T) capabilities, 329
joint automobile ventures with U.S., emission control technologies of, 339
knowledge spillovers encouraged by, 328
Kyoto Protocol and, 617
lessons learned from, generalizable nature of, 333
local content requirement for new wind farms, 337–338
methodology to calculate CO2 emissions, 557–561
as net exporter of pollutants, 556
nuclear energy, 398
photovoltaic (PV) industry, 327, 331
pilot emission trading systems, 277
R&D performance of, 323
Renewable Energy Development Project’s success, 335
technology transfer from, to other developing countries, 332
trade deficit of US vs. trade surplus of China, 145
US relations with, 657
weather extremes’ impact on water levels, 578, 594
wind energy and turbine manufacturing capacity, 330–331, 332
Citizens Climate Lobby, 644
Clean Air Act, 660, 661
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects, 326, 330, 337–338, 339–340, 617, 634n7, 649, 660, 663, 664, 665, 668
Clean technologies. See Technological change
Climate change. See also Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
abrupt changes, 567, 572–574, 581 (p. 688)
Arctic, effects on. See Ice sheet disintegration
Avoiding dangerous climate change forum (2006), 507
Earth’s orbital variations and, 143
energy distribution and, 142–143
evidence of, 647–648
failure of Earth to self-regulate, 655
general population awareness of, 648
global challenge of, 663
greenhouse gases (GHGs) and, 143–144
human responsibility for, 9, 11, 20, 22, 25, 53, 116, 144, 204, 297, 499, 501, 504–505, 520, 572, 611, 615, 635n35, 655
hydrological cycle and, 578
increase in mean temperature, 53–54
lack of understanding of, 142
literature review, 142–144
macroeconomic considerations of, 149–151
ocean warming, 571–572
solar radiation and, 143
thresholds and abrupt changes, 568–572
weather extremes. See Extreme weather events
Climate Economics: The State of the Art (Ackerman & Stanton), 588
Climate properties relevant to decision making
current climate projections and, 12–13
deep, Knightian, or second-order uncertainty, 11
long time scales, 11
Climate risk insurance, 151
Climate risk management. See Risk management
Climate sensitivity, 503
Club of Rome, 351
Coal. See Fossil fuel
Coal-fired power plants, 340–341
Coalitional games, 157–159
Coastlines. See also Floods
increasing height of coastal defenses, 9
Colorado River, 594–595, 598n12, 648
Columbia River system, generation of hydropower, 579
Commission on Global Governance, 603
Common resource, 3, 246n2
atmosphere as, 260–296. See also Emission reduction policies
Thomas Aquinas on, 274
Community integrated assessment system (CIAS), 172
Concentrated solar plants (CSPs), 667
Conferences of the Parties (COP), 607
COP13/MOP3 (Bali Conference), 610–611
COP17, 171, 657. See also Durban Platform (2011)
Conflict resolution, 622–623
Convention on Climate (UN), 509
Cooking stoves, 325–327, 326t, 332, 341
Copenhagen agreement (2009), 1, 2, 171, 611–612, 631
constraints of, 83, 612
effectiveness of pledges, 277–278
mitigation costs, control of, 268
North–South clash, 657
obligations of, 499, 507, 516, 611–612
signatories to, 508
Copenhagen Economics study on climate change, 338
Cost–benefit analysis (CBA), 116, 266–267, 582
Country Assistance Strategies, 151
CSPs (Concentrated solar plants), 667
The Daily Show on US energy crisis, 415
Damage reservoirs, 20–22, 26–30, 30f, 43–45, 45t
DICE model with, 38–42, 40f
integrating energy balance assessment with, 30–38, 38–39f
Damages assessment, 3. See also Damage reservoirs
marginal damage cost of CO2, 300, 302–303f, 302t, 303–304, 304f, 305 (p. 689)
traditional damage function, temporal profile of, 20–22, 26
updating damage function as subjective decision of the agent, 127–129
Decentralization, 159–160
vertical fiscal decentralization, 285–287
“Degenerate fingerprinting” method, 571
Demographic dynamics
with stabilization, 5, 520. See also Stabilization of climate
of weather extremes, 580
Denmark’s use of wind energy, 359
Desertification, 647. See also Sahara desertification
Developed countries. See also OECD countries
adoption of new technologies in, 334
climate change and, 2
grandfathering rule for emissions from, 273–274
Developing countries
agriculture in, 5, 213–214, 342
cap-and-trade as unfair burden to, 4
climate change and, 2, 150, 299
cooperation having most positive effect on, 219
emissions cutting, 613
mobile phones, impact in, 354
technological innovation and, 324, 334, 342–343
DICE model
agriculture and, 589–590, 597n3
canonical models of, 119–120
with damage reservoirs, 22, 38–42, 40f, 47n5
DICE/RICE models, 31, 35, 118, 629, 630
DSICE version, 47n5
Differential games, 156, 160–164, 160t, 162f
Discount rate
balancing present-day generation’s well-being against future generation’s well-being and, 248–249, 266
hyperbolic discount factor, 248, 305, 309n4, 367
updating of, 129
welfare impacts of climate change, 304–305
Doha agreement (2012), 1
Double-sided vector autoregression (VAR), 4
Draft Articles on the Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, 619
Droughts, 572–574, 576, 579, 593–595
Durban Platform (2011), 1, 171, 509, 613–614, 618, 657, 659–660
Dust Bowl (US), 572, 573–574
Earth’s orbital variations and climate change, 143
Earth Summit (Rio de Janeiro 1992), 607–609. See also Rio Declaration
Agenda 21, 605, 607, 609
EBMs (Energy balance models), 208
Economic growth. See also GDP; specific countries
prospects for, 144–146
renewable energy and, 479
sustainable growth path, 223
Economic growth linked with climate change, model of, 82–113, 445
augmented Hamiltonian, 95
business-as-usual strategies with low abatement, 96–107
capital dynamics, 84
constraints of Kyoto and Copenhagen agreements, 82
control constraints, 94
direct adjoining approach, 95
dynamic model, 83–86
emission and CO2 concentration, 84–85
finite-horizon control problems, 98–107, 99–106f, 107–110, 109–110t
infinite-horizon control problems, 89, 96–98, 96–98f, 107, 108f
literature review, 205
necessary optimality conditions, 89–95
numerical case studies, 95–107
optimal control problems, 86–88, 87t
parametric sensitivity analysis of steady states, 93
Pareto improvement and, 449
social optimum for control, 91–92, 92t
state constraints, 94–95 (p. 690)
steady states for constant abatement, 89–91, 91f, 91t
temperature, 85–86
transversality conditions for adjoint variables, 93–94
Economic modeling for successful climate change policies, 629–631
Economy–energy–environment model PANTA RHEI, 4
Eco-Patent Commons (World Business Council for Sustainable Development), 338
Electrification, benefits of, 341
Emission reduction policies, 260–296. See also Cap-and-trade; Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction; Emission trading systems (ETS); Greenhouse gases (GHGs)
allocating climate rent, 271–275
banking and borrowing of emission permits, 269
burden-sharing and financial transfers, 281–282
carbon border tax adjustments, 282
carbon budgets and costs of mitigation, 264, 265t, 270
carbon tax scheme, 271. See also Carbon tax
Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) as national asset in China, 338
challenge of global cooperation, 275–284
co-benefits, 278–279
distribution of climate rent, 273–275
ethical considerations, 284
global stabilization target, choice of, 266–268, 313–314
governing atmospheric common, 268–275
grandfathering rule, 273–274
horizontal fiscal federalism, 287–288
hybrid approaches, 270
improving global cooperation, 281–284
low-carbon technology development, 279–280
polycentric governance of global commons, outlook for, 288–289
precautionary approach applied to, 267, 267f
regulatory takings, compensation for, 272
repeated interaction of nations, 283–284
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and, 262, 263f
reputation as deterrent and incentive, 283–284
risks of mitigation, 262–266
signaling by unilateral action, 280
subsidies for carbon capture and sequestration, 270
supply-side dynamics, 268–271, 271f
surplus sharing schemes, 281
technology (clubs), 282
threat of punishment to deter free riding, 283
trade policies, 282–283. See also Emission trading systems (ETS)
transformation of fossil resource rent into climate rent, 272–273
unilateral action, rationales for, 277–280
vertical fiscal decentralization, 285–287
Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, 453, 454
Emission trading systems (ETS), 376–397. See also European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS)
dynamics of the game and Pareto ranking of cases, 380–393, 383–384f, 390–391f
pilot ETS, 277, 286
random matching model to evaluate, 377, 378–380
welfare of society analysis, 395n6
Wisconsin water pollution permits, strategic refusal of large firms to sell to smaller firms, 394n2
Employment effects of climate policies, 4, 445–476
carbon-intensity of goods, sectors, and activities as means of analysis, 447
carbon tax’s effect on, 446, 448
carbon tax without subsidy, 466, 466–467f
carbon tax with subsidy paid on consumption of low-carbon-intensive goods, 463–465, 464–465f
carbon tax with wage subsidy, 467 (p. 691)
country results of impulse response analysis, 467–471, 468–469f, 468t, 470t
double-dividend hypothesis, 448–456
German data set used for study, 456–457, 457t. See also Germany
German ecological tax reform (1998) and, 454–455
government activity required to move toward low-carbon economy, 447
increased mortality due to weather extremes, effect on labor supply, 580
labor mobility and, 454
model used for study, 457–459, 458t, 472
neutral policy with respect to employment and output, 4, 27, 467, 468f
policy response analysis, 459–463, 461f, 463f
renewable energy sector offering employment prospects, 479
transition of labor from agriculture to manufacturing and services, 446
Energy balance climate models (EBCMs), 19–52, 581
damage reservoirs and, 20–22, 26–30, 43–45, 45t
DICE model with damage reservoirs, 22, 38–42, 40f
DICE/RICE models and, 31, 35
integrating energy balance assessment with damage reservoirs, 30–38, 38–39f
one-dimensional energy balance climate model and, 22–26, 47n9, 47n15, 48n19
research needs, 41–42
two-mode solution, 42–43
Energy balance models (EBMs), 208
Energy efficiency
Germany, 486–489, 486f, 487–488t, 488f
importance of, 478
likelihood of move to, 262
“Energy Technology Perspectives 2010” (ETP report), 509–510, 549
EPPA (Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis) model, 453, 454
Equity weighting, 307–308
Ethical considerations of emission reduction policies, 284
European Court of Justice, 620, 621, 623
European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), 277, 376–377, 617, 659, 663, 666
Europe/European Union. See also specific countries
agricultural changes due to climate change, 590
carbon emissions regulation, 261, 277, 613, 617, 645. See also European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS)
carbon tax’s impact on employment, 454–455
climate goals of, 2, 507
Copenhagen agreement and, 508
crop yields and weather extremes, 578–579
“Enhancing robustness and model integration for the assessment of global environmental change” (ERMITAGE) project, 171
financial rescue packages, 145
Fukushima incident, European response to, 399
heat waves, health effects of, 576
hydropower, weather extremes’ effect on, 579
job creation of renewable energy, 480
malaria, 580
precipitation changes tied to global warming, 594
renewable energy, 277, 351, 352t, 477
Eurostat, 351
Eurozone crisis, 145, 149
Evolutionary game theory, 53
Exeter forum (2006), 507
Extreme weather events, 150, 204, 262, 575–577. See also Hurricanes
regional spread and probable outcomes, 578–580
FACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) experiments, 5, 590–591
Fairness in climate negotiations, 170–203
computation of fair side-payments, 179–180
GEMINI-E3 scenarios, 174, 184–198 (p. 692)
interpretation of results obtained, 182–184, 183t
PLASIM-ENTS climate model, 173–176
proposed sharing of safety budget and distribution of quotas, 180–181, 181–182t
steps for, 172–173
TIAM-WORLD coupled with PLASIM-ENTS model, 174, 176–184
Famine, 576
Fax machines, 373n4
Fee-and-dividend approach, 641–642, 643
Financial crises, 144–145, 654–658
Finite-horizon control problems, 98–107, 99–106f, 107–110, 109–110t
Floods. See also Extreme weather events; Sea level rise (SLR)
flood control, as public goods, 342
probabilistic estimates of, 11, 12, 13, 39
Foreign direct investment (FDI) for technological change, 328–329
Foresight principle, 582
Forestry sector
Copenhagen Accord and, 612
rainfall and weather extremes, 579
technological change in, 246n7
trade scenarios involving, 223–247. See also Incentives for noncooperative countries
Fossil fuel
from Brazil and Russia, 151
compensation of fossil resource owners, 272
superiority in terms of material flow (Georgescu-Roegen’s Fundamental Proposition), 414
taxes on, 269
uranium reserves vs. primary energy sources, 403–404, 403t, 413–414
Fracking, 662
“Fractional risk attribution,” 571
Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments, 5, 590–591
Free riding
renewable energy and, 350
threat of punishment to deter free riding, 283
treaties addressing, 626
Free trade, 148
Fukushima disaster (2011), 3, 4, 398–402, 478, 669
causing debate in Japan over energy allocation profile, 414
cesium amount released, 401–402
cold shutdown not possible, 401
compensation to people impacted by disaster, 402
Japanese upgrading of disaster’s release of nuclear matter, 399–401
sea vs. land contamination, 402
shareholder suit related to, 402
G-20 statement on sustainable growth, 656
Game theory, 3, 151–153. See also Random matching model
Bayesian games, 154
choice of actions, 154–157
coalitional games, 157–159
decentralization, 159–160
differential games, 156, 160–164, 160t, 162f
global cooperation and, 275
literature review and open ends, 163–164
macroeconomic models of interacting countries, 206–207
meta-game analysis based on community integrated assessment. See Fairness in climate negotiations
microeconomic models of, 206
noncooperative static games, 152, 154. See also Nash equilibrium
open-loop and feedback strategy in dynamic games, 153
presenting an agreement of countries through, 171
Stackelberg game, 154
static games, 151–152
subgame-consistent solutions, 156–157
time consistency in dynamic cooperative games, 158–159
GATT dispute settlement procedure, 620 (p. 693)
GCMs (General Circulation Models), 570 GDP. See also Economic growth
agriculture’s share of, 589
climate inaction, effect of, 549
vs. quality of life, 146–147, 149
tied with carbon emissions, 657
GEMINI-E3 scenarios, 174, 184–198
coupling with emulator PLASIM-ENTS, 186–187
equilibrium for the max min allocation, 193–195t, 193–196, 195f, 196t
formulation of game design problem based on, 189–192
interpretation of results obtained in this game theoretic approach, 196–198, 197f
presentation of, 184–186, 185t, 186f
solution to game design problem, 192–193, 192–193t
statistical analysis of, 187–189, 188f
General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) dispute settlement procedure, 620
General Circulation Models (GCMs), 570
General Electric, 332, 667
General Motors, 328, 371
Geoengineering, 9
Georgescu-Roegen’s Fundamental Proposition, 414
German Institute for Economic Research, 454
Germany
ecological tax reform (1998), 454–455
Energiewende policy, 277
energy efficiency, 486–489, 486f, 487–488t, 488f
job creation of renewable energy, 479–480, 481f, 491–492, 491t
nuclear energy, 398, 399, 478
photovoltaic (PV) industry, 490
precautionary principle, 582
R&D performance of, 323
renewable energy, 477–496. See also Renewable energy
Global cooling, 49n32
Global Thermostat LLC, 666
Gradualist approach to climate policy, 22, 30
Grandfathering rule in emission reduction policies, 273–274
Granfalloons (Kurt Vonnegut term), 414
Great Tohoku–Kanto Earthquake (2011), 399. See also Fukushima disaster (2011)
Greece’s financial crisis, 145, 371
Green capitalism, 654–658, 665–667
Green Climate Fund, 281–282, 611, 613, 614, 629
Green energy, 150. See also Renewable energy
Greenhouse gases (GHGs). See also Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reduction; Emission reduction policies; Kyoto Protocol
climate change and, 143–144, 204, 208–209, 501–505, 504–505f
stabilization of, 499–554. See also Stabilization of climate
unregulated in most of the world, 261
Green innovation, 324, 332. See also Technological change
secondary benefits from, 341–342
Greenland ice sheet disintegration. See Ice sheet disintegration
Green paradox, 269, 349
Green Power Fund, 649, 667
Health
advance purchase commitments for medicines, 342–343
heat waves, effects of, 576
HIV/AIDS treatment, 339, 371
increased mortality, 580
respiratory illnesses, 580
vector-borne diseases, 580, 648
High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Finance, 611–612
Holocene formation of Sahara, 572
Horizontal fiscal federalism, 287–288
Human Development Report 2007/2008, 549
Hungary, employment impact of carbon tax in, 471 (p. 694)
Hurricane intensity, global warming’s effect on, 576–577
Hurricane Katrina, 1, 576–577
Hurricane Rita, 576
Hurricane Sandy, 1
Hurricane Wilma, 576
Hydrological cycle, 578
Hydropower, 491, 537, 579
IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency), 399–400
Ice-albedo feedback, 19–20, 46n1
Ice sheet disintegration, 9, 10f, 12, 149–150, 647. See also Permafrost
as damage reservoirs, 20–22, 46nn2–3
GHG release from, 261
IGSM (MIT Integrated Global System Model), 453
IMAGE (Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect), 118
Incentives for noncooperative countries, 222–247
comparison of scenarios 1 and 2 and effect on growth rates, 238–244, 244t
high-quality coal, adoption of, 329
scenario 1: business-as-usual, 224, 225–234
scenario 2: innovative countries committed to price differentials to induce climate change policies, 224, 234–238
India. See also BRICS
abatement investment of, 218
climate-friendly innovation, 342
cooking stoves technology, 325
Copenhagen agreement, signatory to, 508
economic growth in, 321
failure to control CO2 pollutants, 509
forecast of population dynamics, 530–531, 530f
hunger reduction, 520
Kyoto Protocol and, 617
lessons learned from, generalizable nature of, 333
on-site support needed to support small-scale biomass gasification, 335
R&D performance of, 323
wind energy and turbine manufacturing capacity, 330
Indian Ocean
Summer Monsoon (ISM) occurrences, 575, 576, 594
weakening of monsoons, 9, 10f
Indonesia as forest products exporter, 223
Infinite-horizon control problems, 89, 96–98, 96–98f, 107, 108f
Insurance for climate risk, 151
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), 19–21, 25, 114–120. See also DICE model
benchmark IAM, 116–117
definition and history of, 116
MARKAL-TIMES family of models, 119
MERGE, 119
uses of applied IAMs, 118–120
WITCH model (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model), 118
Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE), 118
Intellectual property rights (IPR), 338–339, 345n9, 371. See also Patent data
Intergenerational well-being, 3, 248–259
background and context, 248–249
discount rate and, 248–249, 266
economy vulnerable to climate change and, 254
fiscal policy compensating each generation, 255–256
numerical illustration, 256–259, 257–259f
overlapping-generations framework, 252–254
two-period illustration, 249–252
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
First Assessment Report, 575
Second Assessment Report, 300, 575
Third Assessment Report, 505
Fourth Assessment Report, 446, 506
Fifth Assessment Report, 264 (p. 695)
on cost-effective energy efficiency, 478–479
economic effects predicted by, 205, 445
failure to balance costs and benefits of cutting greenhouse gas emissions, 116
on global warming, 1, 204, 505, 505f, 648
list of potential feedbacks in reports of, 144, 445
on meridional overturning circulation, 12
scientific studies referenced by, 142
on sea-level rise, 46n2
technology policies recommended, 446
on variations among countries affected by global warming, 150, 446
International agreements and treaties, 5, 603–638
arbitration and conflict resolution, 622–623
court enforcement, 619–621
economic modeling for successful climate change policies, 629–631
efficiency of global environment governance, 625–629
game-theoretic analyses of possible international environmental agreements (IEAs), 171, 276
hard vs. soft law, 5, 604–605
international compliance, 624–625
literature review of effects on climate change, 206–207
paradox of, 275–277
remedies for breach, 623
standing issues, 621–622
timeline of major agreements, 633–634
treaties, types of, 604
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 399–400
International Court of Justice (ICJ), 620
International Energy Agency (IEA), 351, 478, 479, 500
on CO2 emissions and GHGs, 555
“Energy Technology Perspectives 2010” (ETP report), 509–510, 549
450 Scenario developed by, 612
on power plant infrastructure, 648
on renewable energy, 539
on world energy balance, 535
International Energy Outlook (U.S. Department of Energy), 185
International environmental governance, 5, 603–638. See also International agreements and treaties
International Law Commission, 619, 623
International Monetary Fund as contributor to impending destruction and mass extinction, 655
International Program on the State of the Oceans (IPSO), 654
Interval models, 155
Ireland, financial crisis in, 145, 371
Italy
financial crisis in, 145
wind energy in, 359
Japan, 398–418
Act on Compensation for Nuclear Damage, 402
Amakudari jobs, 412
Antimonopoly Act (AMA), 410
debate over energy allocation profile, 414
electricity service rate and subsidy, 409–413
electricity supply and peak demand, 408–409, 408f
Electricity Utilities Industry Law (EUIL) and Provisions for Rules and Rate for Electric Service (PRRES), 410, 412
energy efficiency, 479
Great Tohoku–Kanto Earthquake (2011), 399
Kyoto Protocol and, 613
nuclear energy, 399, 401, 403, 413. See also Fukushima disaster
Power Source Siting Laws, 411–412
R&D performance of, 323
Tax for Promotion of Power-Resources Development, 412
Johannesburg World Summit (2002), 610 (p. 696)
Kernel density estimation, 301, 303, 304f, 309n2, 435f
Kyoto Protocol, 1, 616–618
Carbon Market. See Carbon Market
China and, 5, 555–566, 617. See also China
economic growth and, 83
embodied emissions in exports, 556, 560–561
empirical analysis of effect of, 563–564, 564t
first commitment period (1997), 616–617
flaws in, 5, 278, 582, 628–629, 639, 640, 641
IPCC recommendations tied to, 446, 506
national registry systems to track emissions, 617
second commitment period (2005), 618
stalled negotiations, 277
withdrawals from, 509
Lake model, 54–56, 55–56f, 70–75
Leather tanneries, 334
Legendre-Clebsch condition, 93
Limit to Growth (Meadows et al.), 351
Long-run strategies, 668
Long-term forecasting of climate change, 499, 512–513. See also Stabilization of climate
Long time scales for mitigation policies, 11
Low-carbon technology. See Technological change
Lugano Convention (1993 Convention on Civil Liability for Damage Resulting from Activities Dangerous to the Environment), 622
Maastricht Treaty, 145
Macroeconomics, considerations about, 144–149
free trade, 148
GDP vs. quality of life, 146–147, 149
growth prospects, 144–146
intercountry stresses, 149
opportunity cost of global poverty, 148
politicians and budgeting, 149
short-run factors, ease of ignoring, 148
socioeconomic factors affecting macroeconomic behavior, 147
unemployment, 149
vicious cycle, effect of, 148
Macroeconomics of climate change, considerations about, 149–151
Malaria, 580, 648
Malaysia
forest products exporter, 223
technology transfer from, to other developing countries, 332
MARKAL-TIMES family of models, 119
MARKAL-WORLD (bottom-up world model), 179
MERGE model, 119
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 610
Mitigation policies, 3–5, 446
balancing present-day generation’s well-being against future generation’s well-being, 248. See also Intergenerational well-being
cost estimates, 549
differential games in study of, 141–169
global legal framework, 603–638. See also International agreements and treaties
long time scales for, 11
renewable energy. See Renewable energy
MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), 453
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 453–454
Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) policy, 125, 130
Model predictive rational behavior, 122–125, 136n8
Montreal Protocol (1987), 614–615, 626, 627
Most Rapid Approach Problem (MRAP) problem, 26, 32, 48n18
NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement), 620–621
NASA data
on Dust Bowl formation, 573
on year 2010 as warmest in recorded history, 204 (p. 697)
Nash equilibrium
closed-loop Nash equilibrium strategies, 67–70, 69f
Model Predictive Nash Equilibrium (MPNE) policy, 125, 130
in noncooperative games, 154–155
open-loop Nash equilibrium strategies, 66–67, 66f, 211–215, 215t
presenting an agreement of countries through, 171
RICE model scenario, 118
National Academy of Sciences (US), 503
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 574
Netherlands’s solvency problems, 166n1
Neutral policy with respect to employment and output, 4, 27
New Zealand emission trading system, 277
Nicaragua, diffusion of knowledge about solar energy in, 333
Nixon administration, 371
Nonlinear programming problem (NLP), 95
Nordhaus canonical growth model, 3
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), 620–621
North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, collapse of, 9
North Pole. See Ice sheet disintegration
North–South clash over natural resources, 653, 657, 665
North–South technology transfers, 332
Nuclear power, 3, 4, 277, 355, 356, 398–418. See also Chernobyl accident; Fukushima disaster
growth of, 538
health danger of, 413, 669
nuclear fuel cycle, 404–406, 405f
uranium reserves vs. primary energy sources, 403–404, 403t, 413–414
water reactors and electricity generation, 406–407
Obama administration, 651–652, 660, 663
Observation systems, 14
Ocean warming, 571–572, 647
OECD countries
emissions policies, 648, 664
R&D performance of, 323, 323f
renewable energy and economic growth, 479
Official development assistance (ODA) for technological change, 328
Oil and gas. See Fossil fuel
Oil prices, 355, 371
Open-loop strategies. See Nash equilibrium
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). See also OECD countries
Development Assistance Committee, 610
on employment effect of environmental policies, 451
“Organized irresponsibility,” 635n34
Overconfidence, 12, 13
Ozone depletion, 606, 614–615
Ozone Layer Convention, 606
Pacific islands, disappearance of, 1
PANTA RHEI model, 4
Pareto efficient, 155
Pareto frontier, 155
Pareto improvement, 449
Per capita energy consumption stabilization. See Stabilization of climate
Permafrost, 21, 28, 261
PESETA (Projection of Economic impacts of climate change in Sectors of the European Union based on bottom-up Analysis) project, 590, 597n4
Photovoltaic (PV) industry, 327, 331, 341, 353, 354, 359, 482, 490
Physics used in modeling environment, 205
PLASIM-ENTS climate model, 173–176
TIAM-WORLD coupled with PLASIM- ENTS model, 174, 176–184, 178–179t
Pollution control technologies, complexity of, 323
Population dynamics with stabilization, 5, 520. See also Stabilization of climate
Portugal’s financial crisis, 145, 371 (p. 698)
Poverty
climate change and, 150–151, 580
opportunity cost of global poverty, 148
Precautionary principle, 75, 79, 267, 267f, 568, 582, 608
Precipitation changes, 578, 593–595
“Principles on Allocation of Loss in the Case of Transboundary Harm Arising Out of Hazardous Activities” (International Law Commission), 623
Prisoners’ Dilemma, 66, 70, 161, 276, 280, 283, 626
Projections of current climate and decision making, 12–13
Property insurance in US, losses from violent storms, 577
Property rights, 246n2
Prudent avoidance principles, 582
Quality of life vs. GDP, 146–147, 149
Random matching model, 377, 378–380
RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways), 262, 263f (p. 699)
REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation), 611, 612, 634n8
Regime shifts, 53–81
affectors and enjoyers, 56–57
analysis of dynamic solutions, 59–62, 60–61f
analysis of long-term steady states, 57–59, 58–59f
classification of solutions, 62–63, 64f
closed-loop Nash equilibrium strategies, 67–70, 69f
lake model, 54–56, 55–56f, 63
noncooperative game, 63–65
open-loop Nash equilibrium strategies, 66–67, 66f
optimal management, 56–63
regime, defined, 53
stabilization of equilibrium, 53
steady-state analysis, 65–66
taxes, 70–75. See also Taxes
uncertain regime shifts, 75–78
Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) trading system, 277, 286, 660
Remedies for breach of treaty, 623. See also Sanctions
Renewable energy, 3–4, 349–375
background and context, 349–350
biofuels, 358–359, 414
budget effect, 481f, 482
challenges of, 357–359
Chinese and Indian technological innovation in, 327, 335
concentrated solar plants (CSPs), 667
economic growth and, 479
economic models of, 359–370
economy–energy–environment model PANTA RHEI, 482–486
employment potential of, 479
energy efficiency in Germany, 486–489, 486f, 487–488t, 488f
energy-saving technologies, 369–370, 370f
forecasts for, 356–357, 357–358f
Germany, 477–496
importance of, 350, 668
investment in, 335
likelihood of move to, 262, 277–278, 340, 538–540, 539–540f
literature review of dynamic games on, 163–164
low costs, optimism about, 355
myths and limits of, 351–356
net economic effects, 481–482, 481f
old technologies of, 353
physical limits of, 352–353
R&D initiatives, 351, 354, 358
real-world governments, 370–372
scale economies of, 368–369, 369f
socioeconomic and scientific barriers, 354–355
solar energy, 340, 414, 666, 669
study official scenario, 489–492
subsidizing under uncertain future profitability, 362–365, 365f
sustainability, 365–368, 366f
timing of investments in, 361–362, 362f
uncertainty of development path, 355–356
wind energy and turbine manufacturing capacity, 330–331, 332
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 262, 263f
Reputation as deterrent and incentive, 283–284
Research and development (R&D), 4, 207
adaptive R&D, 326, 337
cooperative efforts, 282
incentives for noncooperative countries, 222–247. See also Incentives for noncooperative countries
renewable energy initiatives, 351, 354, 358
share of global R&D by country, 323–326, 323f
Research needs
climate projections, utility of, 13–15
dynamic game theory, 164
energy balance climate models (EBCMs), 41–42
Revenue recycling, 449, 453
RGGI (Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) trading system, 277, 286, 660
RICE (Regional dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy). See DICE model
Rio Declaration
Principle 2, 606, 607–608
Principle 10, 619, 622
Rio de Janeiro conference. See Earth Summit (1992)
Risk management. See also Adaptation
climate projections and, 9–11, 10f
global-scale strategies, 11, 261–268
research needs, 14
Russia. See also BRICS
Chernobyl accident (1986), 399, 402, 606
climate-friendly innovation, 324
Copenhagen agreement, signatory to, 508
fossil fuel energy from, 151
land-use and forestry accounting and permitting under Kyoto Protocol and, 278
Sahara desertification, 572–573
Sahel drought, 572, 574, 594, 597n10
Sanctions
for breach of treaty, 623
EU-ETS, 377
“polluter pays,” 635n25
threat of punishment to deter free riding, 283
Sea level rise (SLR), 11, 648
damages depending on shape of shoreline, 46n2
ice sheet changes and, 12–13, 13f, 261
Second-best abatement, 204–221
background and context, 204–205
open-loop equilibrium for non-cooperative case, 211–215, 215t
optimal solution when world cooperates, 215–218, 217–218t
simple endogenous growth model with heterogeneous economies, 207–211
survey of macroeconomic models considering interaction of different countries, 206–207
Sexism, 652
Short-run strategies, 668
Snowball earth, 49n32
Socioeconomic factors affecting macroeconomic behavior, 147
Soft rules, 5, 604–605
Solar energy. See Renewable energy
Solar radiation causing climate change, 143
South Africa. See also BRICS
cooking stoves technology, 325
technology transfer from, to other developing countries, 332
South America. See also specific countries
hydropower, weather extremes’ effect on, 579
South Asia. See also specific countries
food crops related to temperatures, 592–593
Indian Ocean Summer Monsoon occurrences, effect on, 576
monsoons. See Indian Ocean
South Korea, climate-friendly innovation in, 324, 326–327
South–North clash over natural resources, 653, 657, 665
South–North technology transfers, 332
South–South technology transfers, 332 (p. 700)
Stabilization of climate, 499–554
CO2 emissions and accumulation in atmosphere, calculation of, 540–547, 541t, 542–544f, 546f
coal demand, 537
cusp growth model of demographic dynamics, 524–532, 529–530f
dynamics of energy consumption, 513–520
energy-ecological development, influence on economic growth, 549–550
examples of calculating dynamics of energy consumption, 532–535, 533–534f, 533t
forecast of changes of earth ground atmosphere, 547, 548f
fuel and energy balance, 535–540, 536t
gas reserves vs. demand, 536
hydropower development, 537
international measures, 501–509
Kapitsa’s phenomenological model, 521–524, 523–524f
models for calculating demographic dynamics, 520–532
oil as dominant type of fuel, 536
per capita energy consumption, 514–520, 515t, 516–519f
research problem statement, 509–513, 510f
transition to new paradigm, 513–520
Stackelberg game, 154
Standing issues, 621–622
Stern Report (2006), 549, 630, 635n36, 654–655
Stochastic behavior of climate, 4
Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment (1972), 603, 605–607
Sub-Saharan Africa, food crops related to temperatures in, 592–593
Subsidies
for carbon capture and sequestration, 270
double-sided vector autoregression (VAR) used to assess effectiveness of, 4
for technological change, 337, 355
Survival and avoiding extinction, 650–653
Sustainability, 647–671
blueprint for sustainable development, 667–668
Carbon Market and, 658–665
carbon-negative power plants, 666
granfalloons (Kurt Vonnegut term) and, 414
green capitalism, 654–658, 665–667
growth path, 223
renewable energy, 365–368, 366f
survival and avoiding extinction, 650–653
women, role of, 652–653
World Summit for Sustainable Development (Johannesburg 2002), 610
Taxes. See also Carbon tax
constant tax rates in extended lake problem, 73–75
on fossil fuels, 269
future generations, high taxes to compensate for choices made by earlier generations, 259
lake problem and, 70–75
personal income taxes, 453
state-dependent tax rates in lake problem, 71
time-dependent tax rates in global warming model, 71–73, 73f
time-dependent tax rates in lake problem, 70–71
Technological change, 3, 321–348. See also Research and development (R&D)
adaptive R&D, 326, 337
background and context, 321–323
clean technologies and low-carbon technologies, 26, 270, 279–280, 282, 322, 337–340, 509, 662, 669. See also Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects
coal-fired power plants and, 340–341
cooking stoves and, 325–327, 326t, 332, 341
creating demand for innovations in developing countries, 343 (p. 701)
developed countries requiring mass-market scale for internal diffusion of technology, 334
developing countries, implications for, 342–343
diffusion of knowledge within countries, 333–335
disembodied technology, 328
embodied technology, 328
emerging economies’ innovation meeting demands of high-income countries, 326–327
environmental policy, role of, 339–342
foreign direct investment for, 328–329
in forestry sector, 246n7
innovators, 323–326, 323f
international technology transfer, 327–329
investment in, 335
knowledge spillovers, 328, 331–332, 337
labor efficiency associated with, 520
lessons learned from India and China, generalizable nature of, 333
limited-market technology in high-income countries, 324–327, 325t
literature review on environmental technology transfer, 329–332
market failures, effect of, 336
matching needs of recipient countries with technologies available from source countries, 332–333
NGO aid for, 328
official development assistance for, 328
private sources of, 328
role of technology policy, 335–339
secondary benefits from, 341–342
subsidies and tax credits to promote, 337, 355
uncertainty and, 336
wind energy and turbine manufacturing capacity, 330–331
TIAM-WORLD
coupled with PLASIM-ENTS model, 174, 177–184
presentation of, 176–177, 178–179t
The Times on effects of climate change and environmental disregard, 654, 670n1
Tipping points, 9, 10f, 261, 268, 569
Trade. See also Cap-and-trade; European Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS)
clean energy technologies, trade barriers to, 337
relationships in terms of endogenous growth and the environment, 224. See also Incentives for noncooperative countries
trade deficit of United States vs. trade surplus of China, 145
Tragedy of the commons, 54, 67, 164, 170, 626
Tropical cyclones, 575
Turkey, solar energy’s impact on employment in, 479
Uncertainty
abrupt changes of climate and, 581
of carbon tax, 449
deep, Knightian, or second-order uncertainty, 11
interval models and, 155
overconfidence in light of, 12, 13
second-order uncertainty, 11
technological change and, 336
temperature increase and, 262, 299
welfare impacts of climate change and, 305–307, 307f
worst-case scenario and, 154
“Understanding Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes” (IPCC), 575
Unemployment, 149, 452, 454
Unilateral action, rationales for, 277–280
United Kingdom
emissions reduction policy, 634n10
energy efficiency, 479
Fukushima incident, response to, 399
renewable energy, 352–353, 359
windfall profits regulation, 371
United Nations. See also United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Climate Summit (2010). See Cancun Climate Summit (2010) (p. 702)
Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). See Earth Summit (1992)
Convention on Climate, 509
Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), 649
Environment Programme (UNEP), 362, 574, 606–607
High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Finance, 611–612
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), 610
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 9, 615–616
commitment to, 170, 506, 639
compensation of fossil resource owners, 272
cost-sharing of mitigation costs, 275
goals of, 9, 506–507, 607
precautionary principle, 582
probability of triggering dangerous anthropogenic interference with climate system, 11, 504–505, 615
signed at Earth Summit (1992), 607
slow progress of, 275
territorial accounting of, 555
United States. See also specific presidents
CO2 emissions, 509, 644, 657
coal districts’ representatives unlikely to support legislation reducing emissions, 341
Copenhagen agreement, signatory to, 508
Department of Energy, 351
employment impact of carbon tax, 471
energy crisis and biofuel solution, 415
Global Change Research Program, 589
joint automobile ventures with China, emission control technologies of, 339
Kyoto Protocol and, 617
malaria, 580
property insurance, losses from violent storms, 577
protection of property rights, 371
southwestern agriculture, water needs of, 594
subprime mortgage crisis, 144–145
treaties, power and effect of, 604
windfall profits expropriation of US oil producers, 371
University of South California, 512
UN Millennium Report on rates of extinction, 649
Vertical fiscal decentralization, 285–287
Vicious cycle, effect of, 148
Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer (1985), 614–615, 634n4
Violence against Women, 652–653
WAM (West African Monsoon) circulation, 574
Water availability, 578, 594. See also Agriculture
Water pollution permits, strategic refusal of large firms to sell to smaller firms, 394n2
WBCSD (World Business Council for Sustainable Development), 338
Weather derivatives (WDs), 421–444
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) introduction of, 421, 423
data used in study, 430
described, 423–424
empirical analysis, 430–442
pricing and market price of risk (MPR) of, 422, 424–429, 432–433
results of study, 430–442, 431–435f, 431t, 436–438t, 438–441f, 442t
risk premiums (RPs) of, 422–423, 429–430
Welfare impacts of climate change, 297–318
discount rate, 304–305
equity weighting, 307–308
estimates of welfare loss, 298–299, 298t, 299f
growth rate of marginal damage cost, 303–304, 304f. See also Damages assessment
increased mortality, effect on social welfare, 580
social cost of carbon tax, 300–303, 301–303f, 302t, 453
uncertainty, 305–307, 307f (p. 703)
West African Monsoon (WAM) circulation, 574
West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration. See Ice sheet disintegration
WHO (World Health Organization), 576
Wind energy. See Renewable energy
Wisconsin water pollution permits, strategic refusal of large firms to sell to smaller firms, 394n2
WITCH model (World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model), 118, 207
Women, role of, 652–653
World Bank
on absorptive capacity in technology transfer, 344n7
as contributor to impending destruction and mass extinction, 655
on diffusion of technology within developed countries requiring mass-market scale, 334
on trade barriers to clean energy technologies, 337
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), 338
World Development Report (World Bank 2010), 151
World Energy Council, 403
World Health Organization (WHO), 576
World Nuclear Association, 403
World Summit for Sustainable Development (Johannesburg 2002), 610
World Trade Organization (WTO), 283, 620, 643
Worst-case scenario, 154