- Consulting Editors
- List of Contributors
- The Macroeconomics of Global Warming
- Improving Climate Projections to Better Inform Climate Risk Management
- Energy Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs, and The Time Profile of Climate Change Policy
- Economics of Environmental Regime Shifts
- Policy Scenarios in a Model of Optimal Economic Growth and Climate Change
- Adaptive Model-Predictive Climate Policies in a Multicountry Setting
- Prospects of Tools from Differential Games in the Study of Macroeconomics of Climate Change
- Fairness in Climate Negotiations: A Meta-Game Analysis Based on Community Integrated Assessment
- Climate Change and Second-Best Abatement in a Multiregion World with Endogenous Growth
- Global Warming and R&D-Based Growth in a Trade Model between Environmentally Sensitive and Environmentally Neglectful Countries
- Climate Change and Intergenerational Well-Being
- The Atmosphere as a Global Commons
- The Social Cost of Carbon
- Climate-Friendly Technological Change for Developing Countries
- Renewable Energy: Models, Implications, and Prospects
- Emission Trading Systems and Technological Innovation: A Random Matching Model
- The Reality of Nuclear Power: The Fukushima Experience and Its Impact
- Forecast-Based Pricing of Weather Derivatives
- Employment and Output Effects of Climate Policies
- Macroeconomic Effects of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Policies with a Focus on Germany
- Stabilization of Earth’s Climate in the 21st Century by the Stabilization of Per Capita Consumption
- Does the Kyoto Protocol Intensify Carbon Leakage to China?
- Climate Thresholds, Weather Extremes, and Catastrophic Losses
- Climate Impacts on Agriculture: A Challenge to Complacency?
- The Legal Framework of Global Environment Governance on Climate Change: A Critical Survey
- Environment and Development Challenges: The Imperative of a Carbon Fee and Dividend
- The Need for Sustainable Development and a Carbon Market: Avoiding Extinction
- Name Index
- Subject Index
Abstract and Keywords
In this chapter, the scenario method of long-term forecasting of climate changes and global warming is considered. Today, it is taken as a given that the cause of global warming is primarily the anthropogenic growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere. This chapter explores the answers to the question: “What are the admissible limits of global warming?” Among the variety of scenarios of energy development, we have selected one that conforms to a new paradigm of power consumption, consisting of per capita energy consumption stabilization for the population of the developed countries in the 21st century, at a lower, but comfortable level. We show that this level, on a per capita energy consumption basis, for the whole world, comprises approximately 2.5 tonnes of conditional fuel per year. A mathematical model, developed by author, describing demographic dynamics is provided that outlines the transition process toward the new paradigm of energy consumption, both for developed and developing countries.
Keywords: climate stabilization, costs of climate stabilization, dynamics of CO2 emission and accumulation in Earth atmosphere, dynamics of organic fuel consumption, energy consumption, temperature change
Askar Akayev, Professor and Senior Researcher, Prigogine Institute for Mathematical Investigations of Complex Systems, Moscow State University; Co-Coordinator, Russian Academy of Sciences Program “System Analysis and Mathematical Modeling of World Dynamics;” former President of Kyrgyztan.
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