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date: 16 February 2020

Abstract and Keywords

In this chapter, the scenario method of long-term forecasting of climate changes and global warming is considered. Today, it is taken as a given that the cause of global warming is primarily the anthropogenic growth of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Earth’s atmosphere. This chapter explores the answers to the question: “What are the admissible limits of global warming?” Among the variety of scenarios of energy development, we have selected one that conforms to a new paradigm of power consumption, consisting of per capita energy consumption stabilization for the population of the developed countries in the 21st century, at a lower, but comfortable level. We show that this level, on a per capita energy consumption basis, for the whole world, comprises approximately 2.5 tonnes of conditional fuel per year. A mathematical model, developed by author, describing demographic dynamics is provided that outlines the transition process toward the new paradigm of energy consumption, both for developed and developing countries.

Keywords: climate stabilization, costs of climate stabilization, dynamics of CO2 emission and accumulation in Earth atmosphere, dynamics of organic fuel consumption, energy consumption, temperature change

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