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date: 26 February 2021

Abstract and Keywords

After initially and unavoidably raising welfare, more pronounced climate change would by the end of the 21st century lead to a net annual loss, equivalent to the loss of a few percent of income. The uncertainty is large, and the distribution uneven. The uncertainty about the marginal impact is large too, and compounded by disagreement on how to aggregate impacts over time, across people, and over possible states of the world. For common values, the 2010 Pigou tax is 34 dollar per tonne of carbon, rising at 2.1% per year. This would reduce emissions, but not by nearly as much as the declared policy goals.

Keywords: climate change, climate policy, impact of climate change, social cost of carbon, Pigou tax

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