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date: 07 March 2021

Abstract and Keywords

This chapter deals with the problem of fair sharing of a safety cumulative emissions budget up to 2050. Using climate models one may infer the temperature change due to different possible emission pathways provided by world techno-economic models. The negotiations can concentrate then on the fair sharing of the resulting budget. We use two different integrated assessment models. The first is based on TIAM-WORLD, a detailed bottom-up energy model, coupled with the climate model PLASIM-ENTS. Here the supply of quotas on the emissions trading market is decided by a benevolent planner who tries to achieve a fair sharing. In the second approach based on GEMINI-E3, a computable general equilibrium model also coupled with PLASIM-ENTS, the supply of quotas is decided strategically by the regions involved in the negotiations. In conclusion the article compares the results and infers some “robust” recommendations concerning the forthcoming negotiations at the next conferences of the parties.

Keywords: climate change, emissions trading, fair division, international negotiation, integrated assessment models, meta-game

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