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date: 16 October 2019

Abstract and Keywords

Most estimates of climate change impacts to wildlife do not account for how humans may alter land use in response to climate changes. This chapter examines the joint effect of climate change and resulting land use responses on waterfowl production in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America (PPR) by linking an economic model of land use with a waterfowl productivity model. The chapter shows that cropland in the PPR is likely to expand at the expense of grassland. Higher average temperatures, lower average precipitation, and higher shares of land in crops decreases wetland and grassland habitat. Moreover, reduced habitat and higher crop shares are correlated with lower waterfowl production. Under alternative climate scenarios and their indirect effects on crop shares, wetland habitat and waterfowl numbers decrease substantially. Moreover, land use response to climate change exacerbates the direct negative effects of climate change on waterfowl populations.

Keywords: climate change, land use, ecosystem services, waterfowl production, waterfowl productivity, wetlands, the Prairie Pothole Region of North America

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