- India and the World Economy, 1757–1947
- Battles Half Won: Political Economy of India's Growth and Economic Policy Since Independence
- Estimating Rural Poverty: Distributional Outcomes, Evaluations, and Policy Responses
- Microfinance: The Shg-Linkage Program
- Microinsurance: A Case Study of the Indian Rainfall Index Insurance Market
- Caste and Upward Mobility
- Performance of Indian Manufacturing in the Postreform Period
- Informal Sector and the Developing World: Relating Theory and Evidence to India
- Structural Transformation and Jobless Growth in the Indian Economy
- Development, Displacement, and Food Security: Land Acquisition in India
- Reforming Primary and Secondary Schooling
- Higher Education Reforms in India
- Health and Health Care Policy in India: The Case for Quality of Care
- Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth
- The Dynamics and Status of India's Economic Reforms
- Political Economy of Infrastructure Spending in India
- Aspects of Bureaucratic Corruption
- Distributive Conflicts and Indian Economic Policy: Some Notes On Political Economy
- Economic Growth and Ecological Sustainability in India
- Fiscal Rules in India: are they Effective?
- Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Transmission in India
- Monetary Policy, Capital Flows, and the Exchange Rate
- India's Trade and Exchange-Rate Policies: Understanding the Bop Crisis and the Reforms Thereafter
- Domestic Financial Sector Reforms
- The Convergence Debate and Econometric Approaches: Evidence from India
- The Globalization Debate and India
- India at the WTO: From Uruguay to Doha and Beyond
- An Estimated DSGE Model of the Indian Economy
- Development Patterns in China and India: Perspective with A Ces Production Function
- What More do we want to know about the Indian Economy?
Abstract and Keywords
This article looks at the consequences of India's demographic transition—higher population growth and transforming age structure—and its impact on growth. In a comparison group comprising select East Asian economies, approximately 2% of their growth in income per capita (over 1975–2005)—roughly one-third of the supposed miracle—can be attributed to demographic change. Counterfactual experiments based on low and medium fertility rates for India imply a sizeable demographic dividend—roughly to the order of an additional percentage point or more annually to per capita income growth (projecting forward to 2050). The key policy question is whether health and education allocations (at all levels) by the government will grow in tandem to transform India's youth advantage into productive employment.
Prof David Bloom is Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography in the Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, USA
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