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date: 26 August 2019

Abstract and Keywords

The research literature in computer science provides a way of understanding the growing capabilities of information technology (IT) and anticipating their future effect on work and skills. This chapter reviews a set of recent computer science articles to identify the IT capabilities that have been demonstrated in research settings. These capabilities are compared to information on occupational ability requirements to identify occupations that are potentially vulnerable to displacement as demonstrated IT capabilities are refined and applied over the next couple decades. The chapter’s preliminary analysis suggests that occupations representing 82 percent of current employment will be potentially vulnerable to displacement by IT in the near future. More rigorous versions of the chapter’s preliminary analysis should be carried out once or twice each decade to track the further development of IT capabilities and regularly update our understanding of their likely consequences for work and skills.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, computers, employment, information technology, jobs forecast, occupations, robots, skill demand

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