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date: 23 January 2020

Abstract and Keywords

Probability Elicitation refers to the practice and methods of encoding the judgments of experts into probabilities or probability distributions. Such probabilistic judgments are often used to provide information that cannot be obtained directly from data, observation, or first principles. Best practices have been developed for probability elicitation by statisticians, psychologists, and decision analysts, among others, and have been found useful in the evaluation of risks and prediction of future events. These best principles include methods for qualifying experts and selecting the number of experts to employ, the organization of these experts, and techniques for encoding the judgments as probabilities. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the reliability of these elicited probabilities, to develop a set of desirable properties for these judgments and the measurement of these properties, and to compare various methods and protocols used to obtain the judgments.

Keywords: expert judgment, subjective probability, aggregation, scoring rule, calibration

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