Show Summary Details

Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD HANDBOOKS ONLINE (www.oxfordhandbooks.com). © Oxford University Press, 2018. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a title in Oxford Handbooks Online for personal use (for details see Privacy Policy and Legal Notice).

date: 23 January 2020

Abstract and Keywords

Probability Elicitation refers to the practice and methods of encoding the judgments of experts into probabilities or probability distributions. Such probabilistic judgments are often used to provide information that cannot be obtained directly from data, observation, or first principles. Best practices have been developed for probability elicitation by statisticians, psychologists, and decision analysts, among others, and have been found useful in the evaluation of risks and prediction of future events. These best principles include methods for qualifying experts and selecting the number of experts to employ, the organization of these experts, and techniques for encoding the judgments as probabilities. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the reliability of these elicited probabilities, to develop a set of desirable properties for these judgments and the measurement of these properties, and to compare various methods and protocols used to obtain the judgments.

Keywords: expert judgment, subjective probability, aggregation, scoring rule, calibration

Access to the complete content on Oxford Handbooks Online requires a subscription or purchase. Public users are able to search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter without a subscription.

Please subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you have purchased a print title that contains an access token, please see the token for information about how to register your code.

For questions on access or troubleshooting, please check our FAQs, and if you can''t find the answer there, please contact us.