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date: 21 January 2020

Abstract and Keywords

Certain physical processes, such as the decay of radioactive elements, seem to involve an objective, non-epistemic type of probability, often called “chance”. Best system accounts, first proposed by David Lewis, offer a Humean interpretation of chance. On this account, chance is not a fundamental physical quantity, but a kind of statistical summary of actual outcomes. The interpretation explains the close connection between chance on the one hand and relative frequency, disorder, and rational credence on the other hand. It has also proved useful in understanding probabilistic theories outside fundamental physics. On the downside, the proposal arguably fails to vindicate some philosophical preconceptions about chance.

Keywords: objective chance, objective probability, Humeanism, physical probability, special science

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