- The Oxford Handbook Of Organizational Decision Making
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- Notes on Contributors
- Organizational Decision Making: Mapping Terrains on Different Planets
- Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases
- Information Overload Revisited
- Decision Making with Inaccurate, Unreliable Data
- Borgs in the Org? Organizational Decision Making and Technology
- Making the Decision to Monitor in the Workplace: Cybernetic Models and the Illusion of Control
- Culture and Decision Making
- Facing the Threat of Disaster: Decision Making When the Stakes are High
- The Fit Between Crisis Types and Management Attributes as a Determinant of Crisis Consequences
- Employing Adaptive Structuring as a Cognitive Decision Aid in High Reliability Organizations
- Expertise and Naturalistic Decision Making in Organizations: Mechanisms of Effective Decision Making
- Cognitively Skilled Organizational Decision Making: Making Sense of Deciding
- Linking Rationality, Politics, and Routines in Organizational Decision Making
- Superstitious Behavior as a Byproduct of Intelligent Adaptation
- On The Implications of Behavioral Decision Theory for Managerial Decision Making: Contributions and Challenges
- Intuition in Organizational Decision Making
- Affect and Information Processing
- Individual Differences And Decision Making
- Group Composition and Decision Making
- Making Sense of Real Options Reasoning: An Engine of Choice that Backfires?
- The Social Construction of Rationality in Organizational Decision Making
- When “Decision Outcomes” are not the Outcomes of Decisions
- What Lies Behind Organizational Façades and How Organizational Façades Lie: An Untold Story of Organizational Decision Making
- Teaching Decision Making
- Facilitating Serious Play
- Do Activities of Consultants and Management Scientists Affect Decision Making by Managers?
- Risk Communication in Organizations
- Structuring the Decision Process: An Evaluation of Methods
- Strategy Workshops and “Away Days” as Ritual
- Troubling Futures: Scenarios and Scenario Planning for Organizational Decision Making
- Subject Index
- Personal Name Index: Includes All Referenced Authors
Abstract and Keywords
Drawing on research in the psychological sciences that has largely been overlooked in the scenario planning literature, this article argues that when used unskillfully scenarios can anchor and confine, rather than stretch and expand, strategic thinking and that constructing scenarios can itself be a biased activity, one that can induce new and amplify extant biases rather than remove them. Furthermore, unless skillfully introduced, scenario techniques can reduce or increase disproportionately the confidence and uncertainty of decision makers, leading correspondingly to misplaced optimism and threat rigidity among decision makers. In addition, the article highlights how, in some circumstances, the negative emotional impact of scenario analysis can override the potentially positive cognitive effects. Guidelines for using scenarios in organizational decision making are offered throughout.
Mark P. Healey is Lecturer in Strategic Management at Manchester Business School, University of Manchester, UK. After receiving his PhD in Management Sciences from UMIST, he was Senior Research Fellow in Organizational Psychology and Lecturer in Organizational Behaviour and Strategic Management, both at Leeds University Business School. His research focuses on cognition in organizations and its influence on individual, group, and organizational responsiveness. He is particularly interested in managerial and organizational cognition, including cognitive adaptation—how decision makers update their knowledge and thinking in response to changing conditions. Dr Healey’s work has been published in leading scholarly journals including Organization Studies and Strategic Management Journal. He serves as an editorial board member for international journals in both management studies and organizational behavior.
Gerard P. Hodgkinson is Professor of Strategic Management and Behavioural Science at Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, UK. The author of over 60 scholarly articles and chapters in edited volumes, on topics ranging from socio-cognitive processes in competitive strategy to intuition and the nature and role of mental models in organizational decision making, and applied psychometrics, his work has appeared in a number of distinguished outlets including the Annual Review of Psychology, Organizational Research Methods, Personnel Psychology, and Strategic Management Journal. He has also (co-)authored three books. Registered with the UK Health Professions Council (HPC) as an Occupational Psychologist, in 2001 he was elected a fellow of both the British Psychological Society and the British Academy of Management. In recent years, his work on managerial and organizational cognition has been taken forward through the award of a senior fellowship of the UK ESRC/EPSRC Advanced Institute of Management (AIM) Research (2004–07). He was the Editor-in-Chief of the British Journal of Management (1999–2006) and currently co-edits the International Review of Industrial and Organizational Psychology and serves on several editorial boards including the Academy of Management Review, Journal of Organizational Behavior, and Journal of Management. Leeds University Business School.
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