- The Oxford Handbooks of American Politics
- List of Figures
- List of Tables
- About the Contributors
- The State of Survey Research as a Research Tool in American Politics
- Optimizing Survey Questionnaire Design in Political Science: Insights from Psychology
- Laboratory Experiments in American Political Behavior
- Field Experiments and the Study of Political Behavior
- Formal Modeling, Strategic Behavior, and the Study of American Elections
- Why is American Turnout so Low, and Why Should We Care?
- American Voter Turnout in Historical Perspective
- Expanding the Possibilities: Reconceptualizing Political Participation as a Toolbox
- Voter Registration: Turnout, Representation, and Reform
- Early, Absentee, and Mail‐in Voting
- Digital Democracy: How Politics Online is Changing Electoral Participation
- Voting Technology
- The Study of Electoral Behavior
- The American Voter
- Politics, Expertise, and Interdependence within Electorates
- Constructing The Vote: Media Effects in a Constructionist Model
- Campaign Effects on Vote Choice
- Forecasting Us Presidential Elections
- Economics, Elections, and Voting Behavior
- Latinos and Political Behavior: Defining Community to Examine Critical Complexities
- Organizing American Politics, Organizing Gender
- Gauging the God Gap: Religion and Voting in US Presidential Elections
- Local and National Forces in Congressional Elections
- The Study of Local Elections in American Politics
- Studying State Judicial Races in a Transformed Electoral Environment
- Primary Elections
- Direct Democracy in the United States
- Voters in Context: The Politics of Citizen Behavior
- Getting up off the Canvass: Rethinking the Study of Mobilization
- Parties, Elections, and Democratic Politics
- Organized Interests: Evolution and Influence
- Money and American Elections
- American Electoral Practices in Comparative Perspective
- On Participation: Individuals, Dynamic Categories, and the Context of Power
- Studying American Elections*
- In Search of Representation Theory
- Name Index
- Subject Index
Abstract and Keywords
This article examines the contributions of formal modeling to the study of American elections and voting behavior. It concentrates on strategic voting and voter competence for which formal models have been used to explain complex, subtle, and important patterns of behavior that other theories did not explain well. It then tries to clarify the broader potential contributions of the method to the study of voting behavior. Moreover, it provides a brief discussion of the likely role of formal modeling in future voting behavior scholarship. In so doing, it presents examples of current scholarly pursuits whose precision and validity could be improved by greater clarity about assumptions and logical transparency in inference. Formal models provide a rigorous means for converting knowledge from fields such as social or cognitive psychology into more effective research designs and stronger conclusions about why voters act as they do.
John H. Aldrich is the Pfizer–Pratt University Professor of Political Science at Duke University.
Arthur Lupia is the Hal R. Varian Collegiate Professor of Political Science and Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Political Studies, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan.
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