- Consulting Editors
- Vars, Cointegration, and Common Cycle Restrictions
- Dynamic Factor Models
- Forecasting With Nonlinear Time Series Models
- Forecasting With DSGE Models
- Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Unobserved Components Time Series Models
- Improving the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting
- Forecasting with Mixed-Frequency Data
- Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages
- Forecasting from misspecified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts
- Forecasting Breaks and Forecasting During Breaks
- Forecast Combinations
- Multiple Forecast Model Evaluation
- Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability
- Testing Conditional Predictive Ability
- Interpreting and Combining Heterogeneous Survey Forecasts
- Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts
- Forecasting Financial Time Series
- Forecasting Volatility Using High-Frequency Data
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
- Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography
- Forecasting the Energy Markets
- Models for Health Care
- Election Forecasting
- Marketing and Sales
Abstract and Keywords
This article first explores the variety of ways in which judgment plays a role in economic forecasting before outlining the potential problems associated with these applications of judgment. It then discusses the effectiveness of methods that have been designed to improve judgment in other areas of forecasting and assesses the extent to which these methods can be usefully employed by economic forecasters.
Paul Goodwin is Professor of Management Science at the University of Bath. He has an MSc in Management Science and Operational Research from the University of Warwick and a PhD in Management Science from the University of Lancaster. His research interests are concerned with the role of management judgment in forecasting and decision making. Paul is an editor of the International Journal of Forecasting and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making. He also writes a column in Foresight, the international journal of applied forecasting, that is aimed at practitioners. He was, until recently, a Director of the International Institute of Forecasters and he has advised a large number of companies and public sector organizations on forecasting and decision making. A book he co-authored with George Wright, Decision Analysis for Management Judgment (Wiley), is recommended reading on a number of US and UK government web sites.
Dilek Önkal is a professor of supply chain management at Brunel University, UK. Her main research interests lie in the areas of judgmental forecasting, forecasting and decision support, risk perception and risk communication.
Michael Lawrence is Emeritus Professor in the Australian School of Business at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia. With a PhD in operations research from the University of California, Berkeley, his teaching field for many years has been information systems, with a research focus in forecasting, especially the effective merging of judgemental and model-based information.
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