- Consulting Editors
- Vars, Cointegration, and Common Cycle Restrictions
- Dynamic Factor Models
- Forecasting With Nonlinear Time Series Models
- Forecasting With DSGE Models
- Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Unobserved Components Time Series Models
- Improving the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting
- Forecasting with Mixed-Frequency Data
- Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages
- Forecasting from misspecified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts
- Forecasting Breaks and Forecasting During Breaks
- Forecast Combinations
- Multiple Forecast Model Evaluation
- Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability
- Testing Conditional Predictive Ability
- Interpreting and Combining Heterogeneous Survey Forecasts
- Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts
- Forecasting Financial Time Series
- Forecasting Volatility Using High-Frequency Data
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
- Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography
- Forecasting the Energy Markets
- Models for Health Care
- Election Forecasting
- Marketing and Sales
Abstract and Keywords
This article, which reviews the nature of election forecasting, first defines forecasting as it applies to elections, and next looks at election forecasting history. Then, it examines the different approaches to election forecasting, focusing on statistical models. After presentation of a generic example of such a model specification, the article reviews template equations for more than one country, and shows that a political economic explanation is at the core of most equations. An issue that arises here concerns which economic predictor variables are preferred. This question receives thorough discussion, through explication of the UK case. Penultimately, the article discusses how to evaluate model quality, and concludes with the development of a leading example, that of forecasting US presidential elections.
Michael S. Lewis‐Beck is F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor Emeritus of Political Science at the University of Iowa.
Charles Tien is a professor and chair at Hunter College and the Graduate Center, CUNY. He has been working on U.S. presidential election forecasting since 1996. His forecasts have appeared in PS: Political Science and Politics, Research in Political Sociology, American Politics Research, and American Politics Quarterly. His current research is on American foreign policy making.
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