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date: 22 October 2020

(p. 861) Index

(p. 861) Index

Abacha, Sani, 218
absolute war, 76
Abu Ghraib prison, 278, 308n.8
accountability, 788, 810n.4, 820
accounting, 254–55, 280, 282–83, 285, 306, 309n.14, 312n.34
accumulated costs, 228
Afghanistan, 578
accidental fatalities, 311n.28
Al-Qaeda in, 276, 277
American opposition to war, 307n.2
collateral damage, 278, 307
contractors in, 280–81
cost allocation, 285–86
costs of war, 3, 299–300, 307, 308n.4, 388
financing of war, 289, 291, 312n.39
length of war, 307n.1, 309n.11
Obama's request for troops, 309n.10
ratio of deaths to wounded, 311n.26
Soviet war, 115–16, 579
Taliban in, 116, 276, 279, 305, 309n.11, 580, 582
veterans of, 294–96, 312n.33, 313n.46, 313n.49
war and price of oil, 312n.41
as war of choice, 275–76
withdrawal from, 580
women in service in, 297
Afonso de Albuquerque, 572
Africa
benefits from living in peace, 435t
civil wars in, 8, 191, 205–21
climate, 192
growth rates of nations, 374
institutional development in, 212–17
oil resources, 190, 206–7
sub-Saharan, 834
time spent in conflict, 418–19t
welfare calculations, 428–29t See also specific countries
afterlife, 122
Agent Orange, 287, 311n.29
air travel, 367, 374
Al Bachir, Omar, 217
Albania, 119
alliance formation, 12, 473–97, 779
and balance of power, 478–79
and collective action, 481
dynamic, 492–95, 496
with budget constraints, 495
with endogenous effort, 494–95
with exogenous effort, 492–94
with endogenous sharing rules, 490–92
equilibrium of sequential game of, 500–502
with farsighted players, 489–90
incentives to, 767
models, 477–83, 480, 486, 782n.9
as signal or commitment device, 479–81
size of alliances and endogenous, 486–90
Al-Qaeda, 116, 276, 277, 384, 580
alternating offers, 69, 74, 88n.8
ambiguity, 105, 107, 108nn.13–14
American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAOPR), 318, 331
anarchy, 535–39
Anbar (Iraq), 333
Anglo-Scottish border disputes, 852–54
Angola, 243–44, 709
animal spirits, 66
anthrax, 383
anxiety, 358n.3
appropriation, 4–5, 183, 613–23, 626, 629, 630n.1, 631n.12
Argentina, 429, 430t
armed forces. See military
arming decisions, 789–90
arms inspections, 103–6, 107
arms race, 576
Asari, Dokubo, 219
Asia, 382, 421, 431, 435t
asymmetric alliances, 478
asymmetric resource endowments, 514
Atlas Nadorov Mira (ANM), 162, 164–66, 165, 170, 172, 175n.11, 193
attack, 527n.14, 715–17
auction CSF, 505, 507, 510, 511, 513, 516, 518, 519, 521–25, 526n.2
audits, 311n.25
Aumann, Robert, 24
Austria, 682
autarky, 587, 597–602, 601, 605nn.9–10, 605n.13, 622
autonomy, 543
axiomatic foundations, 450, 455–56, 465
Baganda, 825–26
Baghdad (Iraq), 333
(p. 862) balance of power, 478–79
bandwagon effect, 182
Banyaloke, 825
bargaining
break down of, 43, 55n.1
and conflict with incomplete information, 59–88
empirical evidence on, 84–86
games, 55n.3
learning by, 68–75
limited conflict as part of, 75–82
models, 44, 68, 74–75, 83, 84, 183
signaling in, 73, 86
Barro model, 400, 404
Basque Region, 244–45, 247, 255–56, 266, 368
battlefield data, 85, 457–58, 459, 460t
battlefields, multiple, 13
conflicts with, 503–28
cost functions, 508–9
objective functions, 507–8
outcomes, 506–7
with structural linkages, 509–11
with cost linkages, 511–18
budget constrained linear costs, 514–16
budget-constrained use-it-or-lose-it costs, 511–13, 518, 519
infrastructure costs, 516–18
with objective linkages, 518–24
majoritarian, 518–21
multiple inputs, 523–24
weakest-link and best-shot, 521–23, 527n.15
battle for hearts and minds, 818–22, 834
Bayesian approach, 6, 24, 464
Bayesian Nash equilibrium, 95
beachhead effect, 737
Bemba, Jean-Pierre, 821, 834
benevolent cheap talk, 101
Biafra (Nigeria), 218, 710
bilateral punishment, 849
biological attack, 383
bipolarization, 128, 129, 131, 141–44, 149n.7
Bismarch, Otto von, 763
Blainey, Geoffrey, 65
Bond, Doug, 746
bonding, 854
Boone, Charles, 586
borders, national, 763–83
Bosnia and Herzegovina, 344–46, 348–56, 710
conflict exposure and mental health outcomes, 355t
displaced populations, 680
evolution of mental health postconflict, 352–54
historical background of conflict, 348–49
individual reactions to conflict, 356t
measuring intensity of conflict, 350–51
measuring mental health in, 349–50
mental health in high-conflict households, 353t
mental health questionnaire, 352t
Botswana, 706
Brazilian Amazon, 637
Bremer, L. Paul, 277, 308n.7
British East India Company, 574
British Isles, 379, 380
budgetary costs, 284–89, 291–93, 295–300, 304–5
budget-constrained linear costs, 509, 510, 514–16
budget-constrained use-it-or-lose-it costs, 511–13, 518, 519
Burundi, 681, 684, 686, 709
Bush, George W., 277
Caesar (Roman emperor), 566
Cambodia, 682, 684
Cameroon, 207
canonical model of open economy with appropriation, 613–23
capacity-building, 817
capital, 263, 268, 576
capital flows, 734–35, 737–38, 743, 758, 758n.2
caravels, 571
Caribbean pirates, 846–48
carrot/stick strategy, 278
Carter, Jimmy, 412
case studies
additive approach, 267–68, 268t
comparative, 246–47
on consequences of conflicts, 267–69
definition of, 245
for direct conflict effects, 253–58
methodologies, 246, 254–56
unified approach, 268–69
Castro, Fidel, 578
Catalonia (Spain), 247
Catholic Church, 114
Causes of War, The (Blainey), 65
censoring, 433
Chamberlain approach, 240–41
cheap talk, 96–98, 101, 106
cheating, 849–50
checks and balances, 788, 789, 791, 810n.9
chemical attacks, 383, 384
Cheney, Dick, 313n.57
Chicago (Ill.), 372
Chief Financial Officer and Federal Financial Reform Act (CFO Act), 311n.25
child labor, 682
child mortality, 335n.4
children, 681, 687
child soldiers, 817, 832
Christianity, 114, 122, 123
civilian populations, 819–22, 835
civil uprisings, 539
civil war(s)
in Africa, 8, 191, 205–21
causes of, 152, 179–200
theories on, 180–84
coping strategies, 683–85
(p. 863) countries prone to, 187
definition of, 184–85
and demography, 196–97
economic consequences of, 714
effect on household physical capital, 678–80
and ethnicity, 174, 193–95
and external threats, 767, 779
and geography, 197–98
and heterogeneity, 774–75, 781
history of, 188
incidence of, 173t, 176n.13
and income, 8, 188–93
institutional effects of, 685–89
length of, 45, 49
and political systems, 195–96
and poverty, 3, 8, 14, 676–96, 706, 725
prevalence of, 187–88
random narratives, 55n.12
secessions, 767, 779–80
typology of empirical studies, 185–88 See also specific countries
Civil War (U.S.), 817
claims associations, 842
clans, 854
Clausewitz, Carl von, 76, 78
climate, 191–92
Clive, Robert, 574
cluster sampling, 321, 325–26, 332, 336n.11
Coase conjecture, 71
Cobb-Douglas function, 398, 399, 523, 587, 588, 604n.2
coercion, 637–44, 789, 817
coffee, 8, 191, 829
cohesion, 686–88
Cold War, 106–7 See also global cold war
collateral damage, 278
collective action, 816–37
and alliances, 481
and battle for hearts and minds, 818–22
and conflict, 818–28
and ethnic conflict, 833–34
and military effectiveness, 822–28
model, 666
collective mobilization, 692–93
collective security, 857n.3
Colombia, 8, 191, 308n.5, 549, 680, 688, 696n.6, 818, 829, 835
Colonel Blotto game, 13, 504, 510–15, 518, 519, 525, 528n.22
colonial wars, 85, 86
Columbus, Christopher, 571, 573
commitment
contest effort, 28
credible, 816–37
device and alliance formation, 479–81
problems, 7, 54, 183
elections, 836n.1
political, 53–54
shifting power as cause of conflict, 43–56
soft-power, 53–54
and war, 83, 811n.20
common-pool resources, 843
common value conflicts, 32–36
communication, 542
communism, 115
conflict game, 93–96, 102, 106
conflict-prevention theory, 208–12
conflict(s)
all-out, 61–62, 75–77
and bargaining, 59–88
and collective action, 818–28
and commitment, 7, 43–56, 816–37
common value, 32–36
consequences and costs of, 9–12
cooperation in shadow of, 706–27
correlates of, 6–9
as credible signal, 81–82
definition of, 5
and development, 3
dynamics of, 152
economics of, 3–17, 775–80
at aggregate level, 227–49
estimation of costs, 252–314
indirect effects of costs, 258–66
intemporal effects, 261–64
international spillovers, 260–61, 269
methodological issues, 275–314
welfare cost of, 412–41
empirical study of, 84–86, 152, 170–74
endogenous formation of alliances in, 473–97
and foreign direct investment, 737, 739, 740, 745, 750–55, 754–55t
in general equilibrium, 611–31
and globalization, 733–59
and income, 612, 618, 828, 829
with incomplete information, 59–88
informational aspects, 23–40
inhibiting norms, 840–56
and innovation, 653–57
international, 797–808
laboratory experiments, 13, 532–51
coordination problems, 539–42
divide and conquer, 541–42
revolutions, 539–40
riots, 540–41
limited, 75–82, 86, 87
mechanism design approach, 62–65, 68, 75
mental health in aftermath of, 341–58
models, 5, 12
alliance formation, 481–83, 497n.13
of anarchy, 535–39
as contests, 6, 12, 24–28
rent-seeking, 533–35, 540, 551n.1, 776–77
standard trade, 611–31
technological, 463–69
with multiple battlefields, 503–28
among multiple symmetric groups, 485–86
and national size, 766–67, 775–76, 778
optimism as cause of, 65–68, 83
and polarization, 7–8, 127–50, 152–76, 833
and poverty, 15, 180, 707, 725, 726, 829
prevention of, 542–47
and property rights, 633–70, 841–45
(p. 864) and religion, 7, 110–24
risk, 818, 821, 833
as screening device, 78–80, 86
structural breaks, 462–63
survey sampling methodology, 320–24
technologies, 12–13, 449–70, 646, 653, 654, 661, 826
axiomatic foundations, 450, 455–56, 465
difference form, 456–57
empirical estimation, 457–65
endogeneity, 459–62
stochastic foundations, 450, 452–55, 465
time spent in by type and country (1950–2004), 418–22t
and trade, 734, 735, 749, 75657t, 759n.9
Congressional Budget Office (CBO), 296–97, 307, 313n.46
constant elasticity function, 398
constant-sum games, 514–16
consumer price index, 312n.36
consumption, 413–17, 423–26, 424t, 42832t, 434t, 438n.5, 439n.12, 441n.26, 653
consumption volatility, 417, 425–26, 426t, 42832t, 434t, 439n.12
Conté, Lansana, 211–12
contemporaneous costs, 228
contest models, 6, 12, 24–28, 183, 483–84, 505 See also specific models
contest success function (CSF), 12, 25
in battlefield contests, 505, 507, 510–11, 516, 519, 524, 527n.18
in empirical estimation, 458
simple ratio form, 811n.17
in territorial disputes, 768 See also auction CSF; lottery CSF
contingency contractors, 310n.19
continuous-time approach, 538
contractors, 280–81, 310nn.17–20, 312n.40
contracts, 633, 635
cooperation
coercion shaped by, 667
and foreign direct investment, 733–59
norms of, 685
in shadow of conflict, 706–27
after war, 549–50
coordination failure, 55n.4
coping strategies, 683–85
core stability, 479
corruption, 636, 687, 829
Corsica, 379
cost accounting method, 228–29
cost-benefit analyses, 3, 305
cost function, 509–10
costs. See budgetary costs; economics; specific types of costs
cost-side linkages, 510
cotton, 574
counterfactual analysis, 254–55, 254f, 262f, 290, 305, 323
counterinsurgency, 308n.9, 819, 832–33
counterterrorism, 544–46
count objectives, 507
coups, 49, 823, 825–28, 837n.9
courts, 118–21
Crassus, 566
Crimean War, 93
criminals, 845–48
critical value count objective, 507–8
Croatia and Croats, 349, 709
cross-country analyses, 269–70, 434t
cross-section data, 229–32
Cuban Missile Crisis, 578
Cultural Revolution, 683
Cyprus, 429
da Gama, Vasco, 571
Darfur, 326–27, 336n.13
data availability, 270
data differentiation, 270
Davis, Steven J., 308n.4
deadly feud, 854
death(s)
child mortality, 335n.4
conflict, 320–22
excess, 323, 327–29
from terrorism, 377
mortality rates, 322–23, 324
statistical value of, 293–94
underreporting of, 324
violent, 322–23, 329, 330t
debt, federal, 304, 306, 313n.57
Déby, Idriss, 215, 216, 217, 220
decentralized alliance, 773–74, 783n.16
defense, 208, 527n.14, 763, 765, 766
defense spending, 766, 773–76
defensive alliances, 478, 766
deinstitutionalization, 837n.7
delay, 44, 71
delayed expenditures, 287
delegation. See strategic delegation
democracy
in Africa, 213
vs. autocracy, 805–8, 809–10n.2
and battlefield success, 458, 459t
benefits of peace in, 436, 808
checks and balances in, 788, 789
and civil war, 195–96
and commitment problems, 54
and conflict, 776
in poor countries, 709
as promoter of peace, 101–3, 106
term limits under, 810n.4
terrorism in, 375
two-period framework of resource allocation, 790
voting in, 788, 791–93
(p. 865) democratic peace, 101–3, 106, 767, 777, 787–809, 811n.20
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)
coup threat, 825
human costs of war, 327–29, 334
poorly funded army, 817, 824
predation in, 831
salaries of top officers, 823
Tutsis, 825, 828
voting in, 834
weak collective action with conflict, 821
welfare calculations, 428, 429
demography, 196–97
density ratio approximation method, 468–69
depression, mental, 358n.3
deterrence, 208–10
deterrence by doubt, 103
development, economic, 664, 669, 707, 710, 726
diamonds, 199, 709, 843, 844
diasporas, 197
dictatorship, 539, 548, 666, 709, 767, 776–77, 788
difference form, 456–57
difference function, 782n.8
differing preferences, 789, 793
direct costs, 228
direct investment, 738, 739 See also foreign direct investment
directional sampling, 321, 336n.12
direct revelation mechanisms, 62
disabilities, 289, 294, 313n.49, 335n.6, 377
disagreement, 61–62
discounting, 299
discrete distance case, 155–57
displacement, 680, 687
distrust, 92, 96
divide and conquer strategy, 541–42
dollar auction game, 525
domestic conflict. See civil war(s)
domestic contest, 774–75
dominance, ethnic, 159, 174, 175n.6, 195
double-counting, 290, 373
dovish bias, 102
duration analysis, 84–87
Dutch East India Company, 573, 586
Dutch Republic, 573
dynamic group contest, 477
Eastern Europe, 422t, 432t, 435t
economics
backwardness, 634, 658–68
as coordination failure, 661–68
canonical model of open economy with appropriation, 613–23
of civil war, 714
of conflict, 3–17
at aggregate level, 227–49
estimation of costs, 252–314
indirect effects of costs, 258–66
intertemporal effects, 261–64
international spillovers, 260–61, 269
methodological issues, 275–314
ranking of policies, 624–28
that cannot be eliminated, 628f
welfare cost of, 412–41
definition of, 558
efficiency, 650, 652–53, 658–60, 666, 669
market-based economies, 372–73
measuring costs of terrorism, 362–85
and military expenditures, 388–407
of national size, 765–67
and property rights, 650, 652–53, 663–64
of religion, 111–13
spontaneous order with insecure property rights, 644–57
unofficial economy, 636, 649
U.S., 302, 369, 576
world economy, 574
Edgeworth box, 602n.5
education, 265–66, 268, 272n.10, 681–83
egalitarian rule, 476–77
Egypt, 824
elections. See voting
electoral uncertainty, 789, 793–97, 808, 810n.6, 811n.14
ELF index, 156, 157, 159, 171–72, 175n.2
elites, aggressive, 706–27
El Salvador, 691
empire(s)
European maritime, 571–75
expansion of, 559–60
Mongol, 568–71
Roman, 563–68
employment, 303, 680
Encyclopedia Britannica, 163
endogenous growth model, 398–401, 404t, 405, 406, 438n.6
enforcement
norms, 843, 849, 854
of property rights, 11, 14, 635, 636, 645, 650, 662, 669
reputation-based, 850
entrepreneurs, vulnerable, 706–27
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), 312n.44, 383
equilibrium
ambiguity in, 105
Bayesian Nash, 95
cheap-talk, 96–98
in Colonel Blotto game, 512–13
and conflict, 611–31, 634, 646–48
in contests, 25–28, 33–34
efficient, 55n.4
and information, 24
level of deterrence, 208–10
military spending, 793–97
model of creation of property rights, 638–42
moving toward preferred, 309n.11
Nash, 505, 518, 520, 522, 523, 536, 577, 655, 716
perfect Bayesian, 69, 72, 81
(p. 866) policy as source of multiple equilibria, 662–63
probability of maintained peace, 717–20
and provocation, 99–100
of sequential game of alliance formation, 500–502
symmetric, 651–52, 769
in two-group contest, 483
Ethiopia, 217, 710
ethnic conflict, 416, 41822t, 419, 424–25, 424t, 426t, 440n.16, 444, 833–34
ethnic groups
as cause of war, 193, 779
classification of, 156, 161–64
data sources, 162–64
diversity, 127, 174, 193–95, 837n.8
experimental game, 548
fractionalization, 158, 160–73, 169t
heterogeneity, 159–60
histogram by country, 165–68t
inequality and conflict, 170–74
and territory, 195 See also ethnic conflict; polarization
Euclidean distance case, 154–55
Euler equation, 655
Europe, 422, 432t
European maritime empires, 571–75
European Union, 603
events data, 745–49, 758
event studies, 242–44
exports, 190, 616, 709, 759n.9, 830
external conflict, 417, 41822t, 419, 424–25, 424t, 426t, 433, 444
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, 199
factor market intervention, 613
Failed States Index, 840
fairness, 548
fatalities. See death(s)
Fearon, J.D., 38–39, 45
fear spiral, 95, 99
fear strategy, 278, 279
Feder-Ram model, 390, 394–96, 397, 401, 402t, 404, 405–6
financing methods, 289–91
first-best outcome, 626, 628–29
first-difference estimation technique, 748
first-price all-pay auction, 40n.2
First Triumvirate, 566
fixed-effects dummy-variable approach, 238–40
Folk theorem, 667
foreign direct investment (FDI)
and conflict, 737, 739, 740, 745, 750–55, 752t, 754–55t
and cooperation among nations, 733–59
dependency on political stability, 740
effects of terrorism on, 231, 235, 371
inflows of, 735f
long-term nature of, 739
model of, 738–45
and trade, 755, 756t, 757
France, 379, 380, 573, 587, 603
free riding, 112, 117, 181, 475, 496, 772
free trade, 587, 598–602, 601f, 604n.2, 778
future payoffs, 544
Gabon, 207
game of imperfect information, 24
game of perfect information, 24
game theory, 9, 23–24
and alliance formation, 475–95
models, 55n.11
in multiple battlefields, 503–28
noncooperative, 12
paradox of power, 536
predation, 536–37
on trade, 733
to understand honor, 91 See also Colonel Blotto game; laboratory experiments
Gates, Robert, 308n.3
Gbagbo, Laurent, 207
generalized method of moments, 393
generalized ratio model, 463–65
generosity, 546–47
Genghis Khan, 568–70
genocide
in Asia, 421t
data on, 416, 444
estimated effect on per-capita consumption growth, 424t
estimated effect on per-capita consumption volatility, 426t
and ethnic conflict, 440n.16
and ethnic diversity, 172–73
in Europe, 422t
in Latin America, 420t
in Mideast, 420t
Rwandan, 686, 696n.12
in sub-Saharan Africa, 418–19t
of Tutsis, 828
geopolitics, 580–82
Germany
military plan before World War I, 92–93
reparations assessment on, 4
after World War II, 272n.4, 603
in World War II, 115, 575, 681–82
Gini index, 153, 155, 157, 192
global analyses, 269–70
global cold war, 576, 577–80
globalization, 733–59
global warming, 314n.59
Golden Gate Park (San Francisco), 373
Goldstein scale, 747t, 748
Goranne, 215
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 579
governance
effects of war on local, 688–89
and property rights, 662, 664–68
(p. 867) role of, 15–16, 272n.5, 272n.7
government spending, 381–82
grand coalition, 476, 486–87, 489, 496n.9, 501
Grand Strategy of the Roman Empire, The (Luttwak), 563
Granger causality, 391
gravity equations, 241–42
Great Britain, 573, 574, 587, 603
Great Depression, 4, 576
Great Peloponnesian War, 91–92
Greece, 234–35, 371
grievance, 692–93, 837n.13
gross domestic product (GDP), 164, 190, 270
counterfactual analysis, 254–56, 254f, 261, 262f
cross-country analysis, 269–70
economic consequences of conflict as proportion of, 253
and foreign direct investment, 750, 751, 75254t, 756t
homeland security spending as share of, 378
and military spending, 389f, 404, 404t, 405
ratio of debt to, 290
and terrorism, 376, 381–82
in unified approach, 268–69
unofficial economy, 636
group incentives, 720–25
for challenger elite, 723–24
for challenger's entrepreneurs, 720–23
for ruling elite, 724–25
group size, 475–76, 481–83, 496
Guatemala, 260, 429, 430t, 578
Gue, Robert, 207
guerrilla tactics, 817
guesstimation, 259
guilds, medieval, 122–23
Guinea, 211–12
Gulf War, 309n.13, 388, 421, 580
Gulf War Syndrome, 287
gunpowder era, 462
Haavelmo, Trygve, 558
hard relative effort rule, 477
Harrod-neutral technical progress, 396
hawkish bias, 103
hazard rate, 84–85, 87
Heckscher-Ohlin model, 586, 587, 595, 602, 612
hegemonic empire, 563
HERO database, 457–58
heterogeneity, 159–60, 765–66, 773–75
Hicks, John, 60
Hicks paradox, 60, 65
Hiller, E.T., 60
Hinduism, 122
Hitler, Adolf, 115
Hobbes, Thomas, 91, 557
Hobbesian jungles, 538–39
Hobbesian trap, 91–108
homeland security, 378–79
honor, 91
honor cost, 475, 480
hoplite phalanx, 565
horizontal inequality, 175–76n.12, 192
hostages, 854
Houphouet-Boigny, President, 206
household, definition of, 336n.10
household agency, 683–85
household physical capital, 678–80
human capital, 263, 264–66, 268t, 680–83
human sacrifice, 113–14
Human Security Report, 327–28
Hutus, 686, 706, 709
IDEA (Integrated Data for Events Analysis), 746, 747, 747t
identity-alienation framework, 155
Ijaws, 219
immiserizing growth, 617–18
impact costs. See contemporaneous costs
imperfect process of decision, 66
imperial overstretch, 562
imperial wars, 85
imports, 616, 756t, 759n.9
income
and civil war, 8, 188–93
and conflict, 612, 618, 828, 829
distribution, 192
growth, 189
inequality, 154, 158
level of, 189
polarization, 128, 154–55, 158–59, 161
shocks, 817, 818
structure of, 189–92
incremental costs, 286
independence struggles, 543–44
independent states, 769–70
independent valuations, 31–32, 40n.2
index of discrete polarization, 156–57
index of ethnolinguistic fractionalization. See ELF index
India, 429, 431, 574, 580, 581, 709
indirect costs, 228
Indonesia, 171, 824–25
industrial period, 462
Industrial Revolution, 574, 586
inefficiency, 43–44, 49, 55n.1
inefficiency puzzle, 43–44
inequality, 134, 153–60, 170–71, 175–76n.12, 192, 540–41
infinite-horizon bargaining model, 74, 77, 83
inflation, 289, 302, 312n.36
information
asymmetric/incomplete, 6, 23, 24, 35–39, 44, 55n.3, 59–88, 183, 811n.20
and conflict, 23–40
flows, 837n.5
in military, 824
nonstrategic, 31–36
problems, 44–45
strategic, 6–7, 24, 26–31
(p. 868) infrastructure costs, 516–18
infrastructure investment, 504, 509, 517, 526n.3, 526n.9
injuries, 293–94, 377
innovation, 653–57, 710
insurance, 372–73
insurgency, 820
intellectual property rights, 636–37, 654
interactive epistemology, 24
interest, 289, 299, 312n.38, 313–14n.58
internally displaced persons, 300
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), 103
International Rescue Committee (IRC), 319, 327–28, 335n.3, 336nn.20–23
international trade. See trade
interrupted time series approach, 232–33
‘‘invisible hand'’ of market, 645
Iran, 578
Iraq
accidental fatalities, 311n.28
American opposition to war, 307n.2, 311n.30
Baathist removals, 308n.7
collateral damage, 278, 307
contractors in, 280–81, 310n.17
cost allocation, 285–86
costs of war, 3, 299–300, 305, 307, 308n.4
financing of war, 289, 290, 291, 312n.39
fraud in, 310n.17
length of war, 307n.1
National Guard in, 287, 298
no-fly zones, 288, 311n.32
oil prices, 301–3, 312n.41, 313n.54
and preferred equilibrium, 309n.11
ratio of deaths to wounded, 311n.26
Saddam Hussein, 103, 104, 308n.4, 309n.13, 580, 823
sample survey approach, 318–37
service delivery in, 835
Sunnis in, 277, 278, 308n.9
unemployment and attacks in, 837n.10
veterans of, 292, 294–96, 312n.33, 313n.46, 313n.49
as war of choice, 275–76
weapons of mass destruction, 108n.11
welfare calculations, 429, 430t
women in service in, 297
Islam, 114–15, 116, 119, 122, 123
Israel, 245, 371–72, 441n.29
Ivory Coast, 206, 207
Japan, 572, 575, 738
javelin, 565
Jehovah's Witnesses, 121, 124nn.3–4
joint costs, 285–86
Judaism, 114, 115, 122
Kabila, Joseph, 834
Kabila, Laurent, 825
Kamougué, Wadel Abdelkader, 216, 220
Kansas Events Data Study, 746
Kant, Immanuel, 101
Kantian peace, 102
Keegan, John, 412, 413
Kenya, 214
Kerry, John, 307–8n.3
Keynesian approach, 390
Khadafi, Moammar, 215
Khmer Rouge, 683–84
Khruschev, Nikita, 579
Kikuyu, 214
Kimberly Process, 199
King, Gary, 747
Koehler, Horst, 605n.8
Konan-Bédié, Henri, 206
Kosovo, 325–26
Kulka, Richard, 318
Kuwait, 421, 580
labor
in coffee production, 8, 829
in economy with conflict, 625–27, 629
in model of open economy with appropriation, 613–17, 631n.12
negotiations, 60
and production, protection, and predation, 638, 640–41, 645–46
of women in Tajikistan, 683 See also strikes; unemployment
laboratory experiments, 532–51 See also game theory; specific models
land, 559, 595, 605n.10
Laos, 419, 421, 421t, 429, 431t
Latin America, 420t, 430t, 435t
law merchant system, 850–51
laws of the marches, 853–55
leaders, 816–17
learning
by bargaining, 68–75
by fighting, 75–84
liberal peace. See democratic peace
Liberia, 428t, 429
Libya, 215
life satisfaction, 379–80
lifesaving benefits, 293
limited conflict, 75–82, 86, 87
limited democracy, 103
linear costs, 508, 510, 518–20
linear count objective, 507–10, 516, 518
Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS), 342, 344, 346, 351
loans, 836n.2
logit form, 455, 468–69
logit model, 463–65
long-run costs. See accumulated costs
looting, 679, 831
lottery CSF, 25, 505, 507, 510, 513, 515, 518–25, 527n.21, 546
Luo, 214
Luttwak, Edward, 563
Macedonian phalanx, 565
Machiavelli, N., 763
Mackinder, Halford, 581
macroeconometric models, 392
macroeconomics, 292, 301–5, 369, 634, 637, 658
Magellan, Ferdinand, 571
Maghribi traders, 843
Maginot line, 12–13
majoritarian objective, 510, 518–21
majority rule, 213, 214
Malaysia, 277, 308n.6
malevolent cheap talk, 101
Mali, 217
Manchu dynasty, 574
Manchu Qing dynasty, 572
maniples, 565
marginal distribution functions, 514
marginal dollar, 314n.61
Mark Antony, 566
market-based economies, 372–73
Marxist approach, 390
mass killing, 172–73
measurement error, 459–60
mechanism design approach, 62–65, 68, 75, 734
medical care, 294, 312n.36, 313n.50
Medicare, 289, 312n.33
mental health, 295
in aftermath of conflict, 10, 341–58
causal link with conflict, 346–47
mechanisms linking conflict, 347–48
in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 344–46, 348–56
measuring, 343–45
exposure to violent conflict, 345–46 See also post-traumatic stress disorder
Metropolis-Hastings sampling procedure, 468–69
microeconomic costs, 292–95
Middle Ages, 850
Middle East, 420t, 430t, 435t, 578, 580, 824
migration, 684
militarized interstate disputes (MIDs), 734, 735, 746
military
alliance, 771–72
effectiveness, 822–28, 829
incompetence, 87n.5
organization, 826, 830
participation ratio, 562
power, 766, 767, 782n.10
spending, 10–11, 259–60, 260t, 268t, 309n.15, 388–407, 767, 770–71, 791–97, 806, 811n.16, 812n.24, 812n.26
troops, 311n.27 See also defense spending; recruitment; soldiers
military expenditures. See military, spending
Ming dynasty, 572
minorities, 543
Minorities at Risk dataset, 186–87
model(s)
alliance formation, 477–83, 486
bargaining, 44, 68, 74–75, 83, 84, 183
of empire, 558–59, 560–63, 561f
of foreign direct investment, 738–45
with insecure outputs, 587–95
with insecure resources, 595–602
property rights, 638–44
standard trade, 611–31 See also conflict(s), models; specific models
modified Solow growth model, 396, 401, 402, 403t
Moi, Daniel Arap, 214
Mongol Empire, 568–71
Morgenthau, Hans, 92
mortality rates, 322–23, 324
Mozambique, 709, 825–26, 828
MRAP vehicles, 311n.24
multilateral punishment, 850
multinational corporations (MNCs), 734, 736–41, 743
multiple battlefields. See battlefields, multiple
multiple equilibria, 309n.11
Myerson-Satterthwaite theorem, 63
Napoleon III, 93
Nash equilibrium, 505, 518, 520, 522, 523, 527n.18, 536, 577, 655, 716
National Guard, 293, 298
national security, 576–77
national size, 765–67, 775–78
natural disasters, 368
natural experiments, 244–45
natural resources, 557, 575–76, 707–9, 828, 833
negative productivity shock, 830
negotiation, 68, 69, 74, 75, 77, 84, 86 See also bargaining
neoclassical approach, 4, 390, 396–98, 438n.6, 634, 649–53, 678
neo-Hobbesian theorem, 209–10
neo-realist view, 496n.1
Nepal, 171, 172, 192, 194, 345
nested contests, 477, 493, 496
New York City, 383
Nicaragua, 254, 272n.1
Nicholas I (czar), 93
Nicholas II (czar), 92
Nigeria, 206, 217–20, 221
N* index, 174, 176n.14
9/11 (2001), 367–68, 367, 369, 372–74, 381, 560, 580
Nkunda, Laurent, 825, 828
nonaggression pact, 770–71, 782n.11
non-constant-sum games, 514–15
nonstrategic information, 31–36
nonunitary actors hypothesis, 67
nonvulnerable rents, 707–8, 715
(p. 870) nonwar expenditures, 287–88
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 309n.11, 325, 481, 765
Northern Ireland, 379, 380, 380t
Norway, 575
nuclear attacks, 383–84
nutrition, 681
Obama, Barack, 277, 279, 309n.10, 580
Obasanjo, Olusegun, 218–19, 221
objective-side linkages, 510, 518–24
occupational choice model, 642–44, 647, 661, 663
Octavian (Caesar Augustus), 566–67
offensive alliances, 478
oil
in Africa, 190, 206–7
in Chad, 216–17
and civil war, 190, 191, 206
in geopolitics of 21st century, 580–81
and interest rates, 313–14n.58
in Iraq, 276, 300, 301, 303, 312n.41, 313n.54
as lootable resource, 709
of Middle East, 578
in Nigeria, 218–20
prices, 8, 301–3, 312n.41, 313n.58, 829
supply, 314n.59
one-sided offers, 68
On War (Clausewitz), 76
openness, 767, 777–78
Operation Barbarossa, 575, 576, 581
Opium Wars, 574
opportunity cost of time, 297–99
opportunity costs, 287, 733
optimism, 65–68, 83
ordinary least squares approach, 392
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 736, 749, 830
Ouedde, Goukouni, 215
outlaws, 845–48
output, 635, 638
Pakistan, 277, 305
Palestinians, 245
panel data methods, 237–42
paradox of alliance formation, 476, 493, 494
paradox of power, 536
Pareto efficiency, 660
Pareto inefficiency, 43
Pareto-ranked equilibria, 661, 662
Paris (France), 379, 380t
partial security, 593–95, 605n.7
patents, 637
peace
benefits of, 433, 435t, 436, 437
causes of, 211
choosing between war and, 210–12, 211f
confidence in, 713, 718, 719, 726
correlates of, 6–9
democratic, 101–3, 106, 767, 787–813
economic perspectives on, 3–17, 412–41
and entrepreneurship, 714
vs. initiation of war, 797–808
models of, 12
pathways to, 15–17
probability of, 712f, 717–20, 718f, 722
and prosperity, 15, 707
sustainable, 486–87
and trade, 733, 737–38
peace contract, 719
peace dividend, 440n.20, 441n.25, 577, 717, 718, 719, 776
peaceful investment, 794–95
perfect Bayesian equilibrium (PBE), 69, 72, 81
perfect insecurity, 591–92
perfect security, 590–91
permanent income hypothesis, 423
Peru, 817
Petraeus, David, 308n.9
petroleum. See oil
phalanx, 565
Philip of Macedon, 565
Philippines, 837n.10
Pincus, Steve, 573
piracy, 846–48
pirate codes, 846–47
Pires, Tome, 572, 581
Plato, 763
polarization
axioms for, 129–36, 147, 149n.11
and civil war, 195
discrete, 156–57, 158–59
empirics of, 170–74
vs. fractionalizaion, 171–73
invariance, 133, 149n.7
measures, 7–8, 127–50, 160–70, 169t
comparisons of, 136–44, 157–59
and inequality, 134, 153–60, 170–74
multidimensional, 145–47
sensitivity, 155
unidimensional, 128, 129, 147 See also ethnic conflict; ethnic groups
political disintegration, 777–78
political institutions, 688–89
political parties, 49–50
political stability, 726, 736, 740
political support functions, 759n.9
political tension, 726
political union, 766, 767, 772–76, 782n.13
pollution, 312n.44
Pompey, 566
Portugal, 571, 572, 573
postcolonial societies, 261–64, 262f
postconflict behavior, 547–50
postconflict stage, 546–47
post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 295, 296, 344, 347, 358n.3
poverty, 441n.28
and civil war, 3, 8, 14, 676–96, 706, 725
(p. 871) and conflict, 15, 180, 707, 725, 726, 829
role in collective mobilization, 692–93
poverty trap, 662, 678, 681, 687, 688
Powell, Colin, 214
power
distribution of, 49–50, 52–53, 54
military, 766, 767, 782n.10
and security, 16
shifting as cause of conflict, 43–56
power form, 451
preemptive war, 275
pregnancy, 696n.6
prices
of exports, 830
of oil, 8, 301–3, 312n.41, 313n.58, 829
as result of armed conflict, 679
primary commodities, 189–90, 191
prisoner's dilemma, 492, 723
private valuation curve, 722, 722f
probit model, 463–67
production function, 602n.3
production possibility frontier, 624–27, 624f
profit, 645, 649
profiteering, 280
property rights
costs associated with creation of, 645
and economic growth and efficiency, 650, 652–53
effective, 650
enforcement of, 11, 14, 635, 636, 645, 650, 662, 669
equilibrium model, 638–42
government as coordinator, 662
insecure, 633–70
intellectual, 636–37, 654
neoclassical growth theory with insecure, 649–53
and norms, 841–45
occupational choice model, 642–44, 647, 661, 663
and opportunistic government, 664–68
spontaneous economic order with insecure, 644–57
and technology, 657
weak political demand for secure, 663–64
protection, of property rights, 638–42, 647, 648, 668
Protestantism, 114
provocation, 99–101, 106
public good, 509
public goods, 509
punishment, 545–46
quasi-experimental time series analysis. See interrupted time series approach
radiological attacks, 383
random coefficients model, 404
random narratives, 55n.12
random noise, 505
random sample, 320–21, 336n.11
ratio form, 451, 455, 456
ratio success function, 811n.17
Reagan, Ronald, 579
real estate, 372
real output growth, 440n.18
real war, 76
rebellion, 181–82, 185, 192, 197, 817, 837n.13
recession, 726
recruitment, 287–88, 298, 683, 687, 817, 822, 825, 830
redistribution, 208
refugees, 300, 313n.53
regime change, 416, 41822t, 419, 424–25, 424t, 426t, 440n.16, 444
regression equation, 229–32, 248n.2
reiving, 853–54
relative effort rule, 476–77
religion
and conflict, 7, 110–24
nonviolent, 118–22
violent, 113–18
and cooperation, 122–24
definition of, 110
economics of, 111–13
history of, 113–16
neutral states, 119
origins of, 117–18
rent-seeking behavior, 533–35, 540, 551n.1, 776–77
reputation, 91, 849–50
resistance treatment, 546–47
resource stability, 479
revelation principle, 62
revenge, 9
revolution, 416, 41822t, 419, 424, 424t, 426t, 440n.16, 444, 539–40 See also rebellion
reward, 545–46
Rhodesia, 825, 837n.8
Ricardian model, 586, 595, 602, 604n.2, 734
Ricardo-Viner model, 612
riots, 540–41
Robbins, Lionel, 558
Roberts, Bartholomew, 846
Roman Empire, 563–68
rule of law, 634, 635, 636, 645, 649, 688, 829
Rumsfeld, Donald, 282
Russia, 92–93, 582
Rwanda, 255, 637, 684, 686, 696n.12, 706, 709, 817
Rybczynski theorem, 612, 616, 625
Saddam Hussein, 103, 104, 308n.4, 309n.13, 580, 823
Sallust's theorem, 763
(p. 872) sample survey approach, 318–37
in Congo, 327–29
in Darfur, 326–27, 336n.13
in Iraq, 329–34
in Kosovo, 325–26
methodology applied to conflict, 320–24
cheating, 324
field work, 323–24
theory and sampling, 320–22
sarin nerve gas, 383
Saudi Arabia, 119, 578, 823
Schelling, Thomas, 43, 44
Schelling's dilemma, 95
scorched earth treatment, 547
screening, 69–70, 78–80, 83, 84
secessions, 767, 779–80
Second Triumvirate, 566
secular states, 124n.2
security
contractors, 310n.18
economies of scale in, 765, 767
homeland, 378–79
leadership concerns on, 824
and power, 16
seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) procedure, 237–38
selection bias, 86
self-fulfilling failure, 720
self-fulfilling prophecy, 726
sensitivity, 358n.4
September 11, 2001. See 9/11
sequential bargaining models, 68
Serbs, 349, 709, 727n.2
service delivery, 834–35
Sese Seko, Mobutu, 328
Seven Years War, 573–74
Sharia, 119
sharing rules, 476, 484, 490–92, 491, 495–96, 497n.11
Shasta County (Calif.), 843, 844
shield, 565
shocks, 612, 620, 679, 681, 817, 818
Sierra Leone, 186, 686, 691, 831
signaling, 73, 86, 479–81
silk trade, 572–73
silver, 572–73
Simmel, Georg, 76
simultaneity, 736
simultaneous equation systems, 392
single-equation analyses, 391
1688:The First Modern Revolution (Pincus), 573
slavery, 574
Smith, Adam, 558
social cohesion, 685–88
social conflict, 612, 619–20
social constraint, 612, 623–29
social diversity, 848–52
social norms, 686–88
social resistance, 653
social valuation, 722, 722f
Sociology of Conflict, The (Simmel), 76
sociopolitical instability, 230
soldiers, 822, 824, 825, 831–32, 837n.4 See also child soldiers; veterans
Somalia, 277, 855–56
South Africa, 260, 710, 727n.2
Soviet Union, 115–16, 119, 575, 576, 579
Spain, 369–70, 371, 573, 587
Spanish Civil War, 266
Spartans, 565
specialization, 631n.10
specificity, 358n.4
spice trade, 572, 573
split-the-surplus rule, 811n.18
standard errors, 439n.13
“Star Wars” antimissile program, 579
state capacity, 832–33, 840
static group contest, 477
steady-state growth rate, 438n.6
stigma-screening theory, 112
stochastic complete coverage strategy, 513
stochastic foundations, 450, 452–55, 465
stock prices, 242–45, 368–69, 373
Stolper-Samuelson theorem, 615, 619
stop-loss policy, 307–8n.3
strategic ambiguity, 107
strategic complementarity, 220
strategic delegation, 29–31
strategic information, 6–7, 24, 26–31
strikes (labor), 60, 71, 85, 86
structural linkages, 504, 505, 509–11
subsidies, 625–29, 627, 659
Sudan, 215, 817
Suharto, President, 824–25
suicide, 314n.62
Sunnis, 277, 278, 308n.9
Sun-Tzu, 412
surrender treatment, 546–47
survivors’ benefits, 293, 313n.48
Sweden, 682
Switzerland, 682
symmetric alliances, 478, 485–86
Syria, 823, 837n.6
system stability, 479
Tajikistan, 681, 683
talent, 645, 649
Taliban, 116, 276, 279, 305, 309n.11, 580, 582
tariffs, 625
taxes
avoidance of, 810n.9
consumption, 653
corruption as, 636
and economic backwardness, 658–60
production, 625–29, 627, 836n.1
and property rights, 649
rates, 670n.7.836n.1
technology, 263, 272n.4
of conflict, 449–70, 646, 653, 654, 661, 826
(p. 873) model entrepreneurs,’ 711–14, 71314f, 720–22
and property rights, 657
Ten Commandments, 122
territory, 195, 277
terrorism, 248n.5, 249n.8
costs of, 10, 362–85
across economies, 373–76
direct and indirect, 366–68, 367f, 378–79, 381–82
in lives and injuries, 377–78
psychological, 379
counterterrorism, 544–46
definitions of, 362–63
in democracies vs. nondemocracies, 375
domestic, 366, 366f, 382
effect on foreign direct investment, 231, 235, 371
fixed-effects dummy-variable approach, 239–40
impact on Basque economy, 247
impact on stock prices, 242–44
responses to, 101, 368–73
and size of economy, 369
sustainability of campaigns, 368–69
transfer function analysis of, 234–35, 248n.4
transnational, 36566f, 382
Terrorism Risk Insurance Act (TRIA), 373
Terrorism Risk Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (TRIPA), 373
Theil inequality index, 145
theory of collective action, 181
theory of second best, 612
Third World, 576, 578
three-stage least squares, 750, 754–57t
Thucydides, 91–92, 93, 107n.1
time series, 232–37
time value of money, 289
Tobit-type regression framework, 748
Tombalbaye, François, 215
tourism, 234–35, 369–70
trade, 4, 249n.9
autarky, 587, 597–602, 601f, 605nn.9–10, 605n.13, 622
and conflict, 734, 735, 749, 75657t, 759n.9
distortions in theory, 623, 623t, 628–29, 630
effect of terrorism on, 370–71
in European maritime empires, 573–74
and foreign direct investment, 755, 756t, 757
free trade, 587, 598–602, 601f, 604n.2
gravity equations, 241–42
law merchant system, 850–51
model, 611–31
in multilateral setting, 734
object of, 557
and peace, 733, 737–38
recovery from World War I, 575
result of 2008–9 financial crisis, 582
in shadow of power, 14, 585–605
and social conflict, 619–20
transaction costs, 635, 645, 666, 841
transfer function approach, 234–35, 248n.4
transfer payments, 280, 310n.16, 312n.40
transition mix, 439n.12
Treaty of the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, 103
TRICARE, 309n.15
trust, 819, 841
Tswana, 706
Tutsis, 825, 828
two-group conflict, 483–85, 484f, 499–500
two-period framework of resource allocation, 790
Uganda, 214, 266, 686, 714, 825, 828, 832
underconsumptionist approach, 390–91
unemployment, 302, 367, 680, 690, 837n.10
uneven contenders paradox, 67
United Kingdom. See Great Britain
United States
Americans’ opposition to Iraq and Afghan wars, 307n.2, 311n.30
economy, 302, 369, 576
foreign direct investment, 371
trade deficit, 749
troops stationed worldwide, 311n.27
use-it-or-lose-it costs, 511–13
value of statistical life, 313n.45
vector autoregressions, 235–37, 391–92
verifiable disclosure, 86
Versailles peace agreement, 4
vertical inequality, 175–76n.12, 192–93
veterans, 288–89, 292, 294–96, 312n.33, 313n.46, 313nn.48–50, 314n.62
Vietnam, 11, 287, 309n.11, 578, 823
Viner, Jacob, 558
violence, 845, 852–55
against civilians, 831
in Colombia, 191
groups that turn to, 186–87
and mental health, 345–46, 347
in Nigeria, 206, 217–20
and religion, 113–18
theories of, 182–84
and vulnerable/nonvulnerable rents, 707 See also civil war(s); war(s)
Virtual Research Associates, Inc. (VRA), 746, 747, 748, 750, 755, 758
voluntary contracts, 633
voting, 788, 791–93, 815, 819–21, 834, 836n.1
vulnerable rents, 707–8, 715
wages, 612, 629
war(s)
benefits of, 276–79
causes of, 211
choosing between peace and, 210–12, 211f
and commitment, 54, 83
coordination failure, 55n.4
coping strategies, 683–85
economics of, 4, 229
effect on trade, 242
experimental games, 532–51
future costs of, 284, 287
hazard rate of, 84–85, 87
history of, 462–63
human costs of, 318–37
impact on conflict expenditures, 288
incentives for, 803–4
initiation and political institutions, 787–813
institutional effects of, 685–89
length of, 307n.1
mental health following, 10
motives for, 91, 93
multiplier effects associated with expenditures, 301
object of, 557
optimism as explanation for, 65
origins of, 93
overestimation of winning, 36
as Pareto inefficient, 43
vs. peaceful settlement, 797–808
profiteering, 280
role in nonwar expenditures, 287–88
Rousseau on, 108n.5 See also civil war(s); specific wars and locations
Warsaw Pact, 481
wealth, 634, 635, 636, 641, 649
weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), 103, 104, 105, 108n.11
welfare costs, of conflict, 412–41
data, 416–17
evidence, 417–36
calculations, 427–36, 428–32t
empirical regularities, 419–22
estimation, 423–26
theory, 414–16
West (U.S.), 842, 843
Western Europe, 422t, 432t, 435t
whaling, 844
winner's curse, 183
winner-take-all contests, 503, 506, 518, 526n.2
women
in service, 297
in Tajikistan, 683
World Bank, 3
World Christian Encyclopedia (WCE), 163
World Development Report (World Bank), 3
World Factbook (CIA), 162–63
World Trade Organization (WTO), 753, 754, 756t
World Value Survey, 185, 540
World War I, 92–93, 575
World War II, 115, 458, 575
Yamassoum, Nagoum, 216
Yeliu Chutsai, 570
Yemen, 277
young people, 197
Yugoslavia, 348, 709
Zarghawa, 215
Zheng, Admiral, 572
Zheng Chengong (Coxinga), 572
Zimbabwe, 709