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date: 25 May 2022

Abstract and Keywords

This article, which discusses the notion of variables as variate traces; the notions of difference and continuity as control parameters; and the notion of effects as trajectories of complex systems over time, argues that the entities which matter in relation to causality are not variables but systems. Any focus on difference and change needs to be done alongside that similarity and continuity. The point about similar and different initial conditions leading to similar and different outcomes derives from the significance of path dependency in social causality. There are at least three important implications to considering effects as trajectories: classification, the ontological propensity of the case, and time. Statistical modeling based on data sets, including modeling based on longitudinal data series, is always retroductive.

Keywords: variables, complex systems, social causality, trajectories, statistical modeling, data sets, difference, continuity, path dependency

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