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date: 15 May 2021

Abstract and Keywords

Increasing the amount of resilient infrastructure investments in developing countries is key to achieving development goals. Two issues need to be addressed to better support investment decisions. First, analysts need to better integrate the social, economic, and environmental dimensions of investment decisions in their quantitative analyses, given the intertwined objectives of climate change adaptation and poverty reduction. Second, analysts and practitioners need to recognize that the future state of those three dimensions is deeply uncertain and that new techniques need to be used that look for robust investments—performing well under multiple future conditions—rather than an optimal solution under a single prediction of the future. Doing so can be achieved by beginning important decision processes with an integrated model representing technical and socioeconomic factors, and exploring various interventions under many possible futures.

Keywords: deep uncertainty, infrastructure, climate change, developing countries, resilient infrastructure, sustainable development

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