- The oxford handbooks of Political Science
- The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology
- Dedication
- Acknowledgments
- About the Contributors
- Political Science Methodology
- Normative Methodology
- Meta‐Methodology: Clearing the Underbrush
- Agent‐Based Modeling
- Concepts, Theories, and Numbers: A Checklist for Constructing, Evaluating, and Using Concepts or Quantitative Measures
- Measurement
- Typologies: Forming Concepts and Creating Categorical Variables
- Measurement Versus Calibration: A Set‐Theoretic Approach
- The Evolving Influence of Psychometrics in Political Science
- Causation and Explanation in Social Science
- The Neyman— Rubin Model of Causal Inference and Estimation Via Matching Methods
- On Types of Scientific Enquiry: the Role of Qualitative Reasoning
- Studying Mechanisms To Strengthen Causal Inferences In Quantitative Research
- Experimentation in Political Science
- Field Experiments and Natural Experiments
- Survey Methodology
- Endogeneity and Structural Equation Estimation in Political Science
- Structural Equation Models
- Time‐Series Analysis
- Time‐Series Cross‐Section Methods
- Bayesian Analysis
- Discrete Choice Methods
- Survival Analysis
- Cross‐Level/Ecological Inference
- Empirical Models of Spatial Inter‐Dependence
- Multilevel Models
- Counterfactuals and Case Studies
- Case Selection for Case‐Study Analysis: Qualitative and Quantitative Techniques
- Interviewing and Qualitative Field Methods: Pragmatism and Practicalities
- Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective
- Case‐Oriented Configura‐Tional Research: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (Qca), Fuzzy Sets, and Related Techniques
- Comparative-Historical Analysis in Contemporary Political Science
- Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Methods
- Qualitative and Multimethod Research: Organizations, Publication, and Reflections on Integration
- Quantitative Methodology
- Forty Years of Publishing in Quantitative Methodology
- The Eitm Approach: Origins and Interpretations
- Name Index
- Subject Index
Abstract and Keywords
This article shows that counterfactuals can be used along with case studies to make inferences, although strong theories are needed for this. The article also argues that game theory is one approach that provides this kind of theory because a game explicitly models all of the actors' options including those possibilities that are not chosen. The article then indicates that any counterfactual argument requires a detailed and explicit description of the alternative antecedent which is plausible and involves a minimal rewrite of history, and suggests that one of the strengths of game theory is its explicitness about alternatives. The validity of counterfactual arguments is assessed in explaining cases or testing theoretical propositions. Counterfactuals should change as few aspects of the real world as possible in order to isolate their causal effects.
Keywords: counterfactuals, case studies, game theory, counterfactual arguments
Jack S. Levy is Board of Governors' Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University. He is past-president of the International Studies Association and of the Peace Science Society. Levy studies the causes of interstate war and foreign policy decision-making, including prospect theory, misperception and war, intelligence failure, learning from history, and time horizons. His most recent books include Causes of War (2010) and The Arc of War: Origins, Escalation, and Transformation (2011), each co-authored with William R. Thompson.
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- The oxford handbooks of Political Science
- The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology
- Dedication
- Acknowledgments
- About the Contributors
- Political Science Methodology
- Normative Methodology
- Meta‐Methodology: Clearing the Underbrush
- Agent‐Based Modeling
- Concepts, Theories, and Numbers: A Checklist for Constructing, Evaluating, and Using Concepts or Quantitative Measures
- Measurement
- Typologies: Forming Concepts and Creating Categorical Variables
- Measurement Versus Calibration: A Set‐Theoretic Approach
- The Evolving Influence of Psychometrics in Political Science
- Causation and Explanation in Social Science
- The Neyman— Rubin Model of Causal Inference and Estimation Via Matching Methods
- On Types of Scientific Enquiry: the Role of Qualitative Reasoning
- Studying Mechanisms To Strengthen Causal Inferences In Quantitative Research
- Experimentation in Political Science
- Field Experiments and Natural Experiments
- Survey Methodology
- Endogeneity and Structural Equation Estimation in Political Science
- Structural Equation Models
- Time‐Series Analysis
- Time‐Series Cross‐Section Methods
- Bayesian Analysis
- Discrete Choice Methods
- Survival Analysis
- Cross‐Level/Ecological Inference
- Empirical Models of Spatial Inter‐Dependence
- Multilevel Models
- Counterfactuals and Case Studies
- Case Selection for Case‐Study Analysis: Qualitative and Quantitative Techniques
- Interviewing and Qualitative Field Methods: Pragmatism and Practicalities
- Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective
- Case‐Oriented Configura‐Tional Research: Qualitative Comparative Analysis (Qca), Fuzzy Sets, and Related Techniques
- Comparative-Historical Analysis in Contemporary Political Science
- Integrating Qualitative and Quantitative Methods
- Qualitative and Multimethod Research: Organizations, Publication, and Reflections on Integration
- Quantitative Methodology
- Forty Years of Publishing in Quantitative Methodology
- The Eitm Approach: Origins and Interpretations
- Name Index
- Subject Index