- Consulting Editors
- Vars, Cointegration, and Common Cycle Restrictions
- Dynamic Factor Models
- Forecasting With Nonlinear Time Series Models
- Forecasting With DSGE Models
- Forecasting Economic Time Series Using Unobserved Components Time Series Models
- Improving the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting
- Forecasting with Mixed-Frequency Data
- Forecasting with Real-Time Data Vintages
- Forecasting from misspecified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts
- Forecasting Breaks and Forecasting During Breaks
- Forecast Combinations
- Multiple Forecast Model Evaluation
- Testing for Unconditional Predictive Ability
- Testing Conditional Predictive Ability
- Interpreting and Combining Heterogeneous Survey Forecasts
- Analyzing Three-Dimensional Panel Data of Forecasts
- Forecasting Financial Time Series
- Forecasting Volatility Using High-Frequency Data
- Economic Value of Weather and Climate Forecasts
- Long-Horizon Growth Forecasting and Demography
- Forecasting the Energy Markets
- Models for Health Care
- Election Forecasting
- Marketing and Sales
Abstract and Keywords
This article examines forecasts reported in surveys, expositing several logical issues that arise when interpreting and combining heterogeneous forecasts. Understanding these issues is a prerequisite for meaningful use of the data collected in existing surveys, and it may enable design of more informative surveys. The article is organized as follows. Section 2 considers the proper interpretation of point predictions of uncertain events. Section 3 explains the simple, but underappreciated, logical basis for a pervasive empirical finding on the performance of consensus forecasts of real-valued events, while Section 4 calls attention to the problem of assessing the temporal variation of forecasts made by panels of forecasters.
Charles F. Manski is Board of Trustees Professor and Chair of Economics, Northwestern University.
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