Show Summary Details

Page of

PRINTED FROM OXFORD HANDBOOKS ONLINE (www.oxfordhandbooks.com). © Oxford University Press, 2018. All Rights Reserved. Under the terms of the licence agreement, an individual user may print out a PDF of a single chapter of a title in Oxford Handbooks Online for personal use (for details see Privacy Policy and Legal Notice).

date: 17 November 2019

Abstract and Keywords

This chapter covers the major types of election forecasting, as they have been applied in the United States and other democracies. For the most part, electoral forecasts have relied on three approaches. In the order in which they have emerged, these are prediction markets, pre-election polls, and structural models. In the last few years, Google searches, Facebook, and Twitter have also been exploited by election forecasters. The handbook chapter describes the various methods and evaluates their successes and failures. Of particular interest is the widespread failure of nearly all approaches to predict the election of Donald Trump. The postmortem is still ongoing. It remains to be seen what can be done to make election forecasting more accurate and thus more trustworthy.

Keywords: opinion poll, predictive model, betting market, exit poll, forecast miss, media coverage, 2016 election

Access to the complete content on Oxford Handbooks Online requires a subscription or purchase. Public users are able to search the site and view the abstracts and keywords for each book and chapter without a subscription.

Please subscribe or login to access full text content.

If you have purchased a print title that contains an access token, please see the token for information about how to register your code.

For questions on access or troubleshooting, please check our FAQs, and if you can''t find the answer there, please contact us.