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date: 27 May 2017

Abstract and Keywords

Forecasting based pricing of weather derivatives (WDs) is a new approach in valuation of contingent claims on nontradable underlyings. Standard techniques are based on historical weather data, so that forward-looking information such as meteorological forecasts or the implied market price of risk (MPR) are often not incorporated. We adopt a risk neutral approach that allows the incorporation of meteorological forecasts in the framework of WD pricing. Weather risk premiums (RPs) are implied from either the information MPR gain or the meteorological forecasts. RP size is interesting for investors and issuers of weather contracts to take advantages of geographic diversification, hedging effects and price determinations. Incorporating either the MPR or forecasts outperforms the standard pricing techniques.

Keywords: forecast JEL classification: G19, G29, G22, N23, N53, Q59, risk premia, seasonal variation, temperature, weather derivatives

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