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date: 20 November 2018

Abstract and Keywords

This chapter traces a path through over 50 years worth of research on judgment under uncertainty. The literature is viewed through the lens of two criteria for appraising judgment. The first, correspondence, emphasizes the empirical accuracy of judgment; the second, coherence, emphasizes internal consistency and rationality. Major findings from research traditions aligned with these criteria are reviewed (e.g., correspondence: fast and frugal heuristics; coherence: heuristics and biases), and a case is made for viewing the criteria as complementary rather than contrasting. The importance of considering the role of the environment and the mind in understanding judgment is emphasized, and the potential for integrating correspondence and coherence in a causal Bayesian framework is outlined briefly.

Keywords: judgment, uncertainty, coherence, correspondence, rationality, heuristics, biases, fast and frugal heuristics, lens model, dual systems, Bayes, causal models

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