- The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis
- Preface
- List of Contributors
- Flexible Bayes regression of epidemiologic data
- Bayesian modelling for matching and alignment of biomolecules
- Bayesian approaches to aspects of the Vioxx trials: Non-ignorable dropout and sequential meta-analysis
- Sensitivity analysis in microbial risk assessment: Vero-cytotoxigenic <i>E. coli</i> O157 in farm-pasteurized milk
- Mapping malaria in the Amazon rain forest: A spatio-temporal mixture model
- Trans-study projection of genomic biomarkers in analysis of oncogene deregulation and breast cancer
- Linking systems biology models to data: A stochastic kinetic model of p53 oscillations
- Paternity testing allowing for uncertain mutation rates
- Bayesian analysis and decisions in nuclear power plant maintenance
- Bayes linear uncertainty analysis for oil reservoirs based on multiscale computer experiments
- Bayesian modelling of train door reliability
- Analysis of economic data with multiscale spatio-temporal models
- Extracting S&P500 and NASDAQ Volatility: The Credit Crisis of 2007–2008
- Futures markets, Bayesian forecasting and risk modelling
- The new macroeconometrics: A Bayesian approach
- Assessing the probability of rare climate events
- Models for demography of plant populations
- Combining monitoring data and computer model output in assessing environmental exposure
- Indirect elicitation from ecological experts: From methods and software to habitat modelling and rock-wallabies
- Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using hierarchical models
- Volatility in prediction markets: A measure of information flow in political campaigns
- Bayesian analysis in item response theory applied to a large-scale educational assessment
- Sequential multilocation auditing and the New York food stamps program
- Bayesian causal inference: Approaches to estimating the effect of treating hospital type on cancer survival in Sweden using principal stratification
- Bayesian statistical methods for audio and music processing
- Combining simulations and physical observations to estimate cosmological parameters
- Probabilistic grammars and hierarchical Dirichlet processes
- Designing and analysing a circuit device experiment using treed Gaussian processes
- Multistate models for mental fatigue
- Index
Abstract and Keywords
This article discusses the results of a study in Bayesian analysis and decision making in the maintenance and reliability of nuclear power plants. It demonstrates the use of Bayesian parametric and semiparametric methodology to analyse the failure times of components that belong to an auxiliary feedwater system in a nuclear power plant at the South Texas Project (STP) Electric Generation Station. The parametric models produce estimates of the hazard functions that are compared to the output from a mixture of Polya trees model. The statistical output is used as the most critical input in a stochastic optimization model which finds the optimal replacement time for a system that randomly fails over a finite horizon. The article first introduces the model for maintenance and reliability analysis before presenting the optimization results. It also examines the nuclear power plant data to be used in the Bayesian models.
Keywords: Bayesian analysis, decision making, maintenance analysis, reliability analysis, nuclear power plants, South Texas Project (STP) Electric Generation Station, parametric model, hazard functions, optimization, Bayesian models
Jonathan A. Cumming, Department of Mathematical Statistics, Durham University, Durham, UK
Michael Goldstein, Department of Mathematical Statistics, Durham University, Durham, UK
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- The Oxford Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis
- Preface
- List of Contributors
- Flexible Bayes regression of epidemiologic data
- Bayesian modelling for matching and alignment of biomolecules
- Bayesian approaches to aspects of the Vioxx trials: Non-ignorable dropout and sequential meta-analysis
- Sensitivity analysis in microbial risk assessment: Vero-cytotoxigenic <i>E. coli</i> O157 in farm-pasteurized milk
- Mapping malaria in the Amazon rain forest: A spatio-temporal mixture model
- Trans-study projection of genomic biomarkers in analysis of oncogene deregulation and breast cancer
- Linking systems biology models to data: A stochastic kinetic model of p53 oscillations
- Paternity testing allowing for uncertain mutation rates
- Bayesian analysis and decisions in nuclear power plant maintenance
- Bayes linear uncertainty analysis for oil reservoirs based on multiscale computer experiments
- Bayesian modelling of train door reliability
- Analysis of economic data with multiscale spatio-temporal models
- Extracting S&P500 and NASDAQ Volatility: The Credit Crisis of 2007–2008
- Futures markets, Bayesian forecasting and risk modelling
- The new macroeconometrics: A Bayesian approach
- Assessing the probability of rare climate events
- Models for demography of plant populations
- Combining monitoring data and computer model output in assessing environmental exposure
- Indirect elicitation from ecological experts: From methods and software to habitat modelling and rock-wallabies
- Characterizing the uncertainty of climate change projections using hierarchical models
- Volatility in prediction markets: A measure of information flow in political campaigns
- Bayesian analysis in item response theory applied to a large-scale educational assessment
- Sequential multilocation auditing and the New York food stamps program
- Bayesian causal inference: Approaches to estimating the effect of treating hospital type on cancer survival in Sweden using principal stratification
- Bayesian statistical methods for audio and music processing
- Combining simulations and physical observations to estimate cosmological parameters
- Probabilistic grammars and hierarchical Dirichlet processes
- Designing and analysing a circuit device experiment using treed Gaussian processes
- Multistate models for mental fatigue
- Index
