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date: 25 March 2019

Abstract and Keywords

This article focuses on techniques for eliciting expert judgement about complex uncertainties, and more specifically the habitat of the Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby. Modelling wildlife habitat requirements is important for mapping the distribution of the rock-wallaby, a threatened species, and therefore informing conservation and management. The Bayesian statistical modelling framework provides a useful ‘bridge’, from purely expert-defined models, to statistical models allowing survey data and expert knowledge to be ‘viewed as complementary, rather than alternative or competing, information sources’. The article describes the use of a rigorously designed and implemented expert elicitation for multiple experts, as well as a software tool for streamlining, automating and facilitating an indirect approach to elicitation. This approach makes it possible to infer the relationship between probability of occurrence and the environmental variables and demonstrates how expert knowledge can contribute to habitat modelling.

Keywords: expert judgement, complex uncertainties, rock-wallaby, habitat modelling, Bayesian statistical modelling, expert knowledge, expert elicitation, software, probability of occurrence

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