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date: 22 February 2019

Abstract and Keywords

This article discusses the results of a study in Bayesian reliability analysis concerning train door failures in a European underground system over a period of nine years. It examines failure data from forty underground trains, which were delivered to an European transportation company between November 1989 and March 1991. All of the trains were put in service from 20 March 1990 to 20 July 1992. Failure monitoring ended on 31 December 1998. The goal of the study was to find models able to assess the failure history and to predict the number of failures in future time intervals in order to help the company determine the reliability level of the train doors before warranty expiration. The article describes the development and application of a novel bivariate Poisson process as a natural way to extend the usual Poisson models for analysing the occurrence of failures in repairable systems.

Keywords: reliability analysis, train door failures, underground trains, train doors, failure monitoring, bivariate Poisson process

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